On Reflection: The Pep effect: How Robert Lewandowski became the world's best

It was hard not to be swept along by the momentum of Jurgen Klopp’s appointment as Liverpool’s new coach last week. Even when he said that he wanted to win a title in the next four years, it was easily forgotten that in German, the word title, ‘titel’, simply means a piece of silverware, any trophy. That did not stop many English newspapers declaring Klopp’s ambition to bring the Premier League title to Anfield; nor did it seem so preposterous either.

He also referred to Robert Lewandowski as a player whose development has pleased him the most. “The biggest satisfaction you can get is when you take a player from Poland, from a small club and watch him play like he does today,” he said. “The difference between that player we signed and the player he is today is unbelievable.”

Welcome to England, Jurgen: some Sunday papers reported that Liverpool want to sign Lewandowski for £40 million. Never mind that Liverpool need to be in the Champions League, and then need to double the amount, before Bayern Munich would even consider rejecting it.

Lewandowski is Europe’s in-form player this season. His latest goal, Sunday night’s bullet-header from the penalty spot, was the match-winner in Poland’s win over Ireland that secured the Poles automatic qualification for Euro 2016. It was the first time in six games that he only scored once: he has netted 15 goals in the last six games, and in total this season, 22 in 15 games. In the Bundesliga, that total is 12 in seven appearances, with only five starts. The only German side he’s faced and not scored against so far is Bayer Leverkusen. As they might say in Poland: “On jest gorący.” He is hot.

Can it last? Is Lewandowski a candidate to follow the footsteps of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, two players who over the last six years have broken countless scoring records and along the way inured us to the sensational by redefining our attitude to individual achievements? In this calendar year, Messi has scored 45 goals (in 53 games), Ronaldo 42 (in 44) and Lewandowski 41 (in 41). The other two, it’s worth noting, have both scored eight penalties each this year too. Lewandowski only scored one, on the last day of last season. Already this season, Thomas Muller, Arturo Vidal and Arjen Robben have scored from the sport for Bayern, so he is a long way down that list.

We know that both Messi and Ronaldo are not conventional centre-forwards, both preferring to cut in from the flank – Messi from the right and Ronaldo from the left – while this season, some of Ronaldo’s striking issues (six blanks and one five-goal salvo against Espanyol in La Liga so far) have come because he is starting in a more central position.

Lewandowski has only played at centre-forward this season, which is a difference to last season, his first at Bayern, when Pep Guardiola moved him out wide or in a more withdrawn position, with Robben, Muller or Mario Gotze playing as a false nine. That was reflected in the end-of-season goals tallies: Lewandowski 17, Robben 17, Muller 13, Gotze 9. The goals were shared around.

This season Guardiola has gone more direct: Douglas Costa and Kingsley Coman on the flanks regularly beat their markers in one-on-ones and create more chances from out wide. Lewandowski (12) and Muller (8) have scored 20 of Bayern’s 28 goals so far this season.

“Last season, Lewy's game did not just improve but it completely changed,” explained Polish journalist Michal Zachodny. “From a counter-attacking forward able to run onto the ball, dribble or play others into space, he now has better understanding of space, of necessity of making space for others, of constant movement and playing one-touch football. He is stronger and bigger than he was at Borussia too. He is now a more intelligent forward, which is the way Guardiola changes his players.”

This progression has coincided with less involvement in an all-round game compared to his last two years at Dortmund, and a spike in his chance conversion rate, which has almost doubled to 39 per cent this season.

The table above compares Lewandowski’s numbers in Germany: his touches per game increased every season at Dortmund as he became more and more integral to the team, and his duels won increased at a similar rate.

The outstanding figure is the 38.7 per cent conversion rate. He rarely wastes chances. Think of Lewandowski’s best performances and that's what stands out: the four goals against Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final in April 2013 came from six shots, all of which were on target; his five-goals-in-nine-minutes substitute cameo against Wolfsburg last month came with 13 touches and within six shots (the one that didn't go in hit the post just before he scored his third goal).

“Lewandowski is all sleek, clean lines, a high-spec, Terminator-style No. 9, capable, with the minimum of fuss, of scoring any goal against any team at any time,” wrote Barney Ronay in The Guardian.

This season, his chance conversion rate is better than anyone else in Europe. This is how he rates compared to Europe’s other top strikers. The table below represents league games for this season only:

It was reported this summer that Arsenal had Lewandowski on a wish-list but was told he was not going anywhere. Arsenal may have built up their hopes because Lewandowski does not fit the mould of a typical Guardiola centre-forward. Muller, Gotze, even Robben, do.

This is Guardiola’s third season at Bayern and he is looking for the Champions League-winning formula that could end his spell in Bavaria with the ultimate trophy. Guardiola is a master at getting the most our of his players’ versatility, with the likes of David Alaba, Philipp Lahm and Juan Bernat filling in in defence or midfield. Against Leverkusen, Bayern won 3-0 without a centre-back in the starting lineup.

But for all Guardiola’s innovative selections and tactical interventions, it may be that his best chance of ending his spell at Bayern with the Champions League is by playing a traditional number nine up front. It just so happens he has the best in the world right now.