Best of three: One defeat all season for PSG - so can Chelsea possibly upset a familiar foe?

If familiarity truly breeds contempt, then someone needs to tell the Champions League. Next week’s last-16 tie between Barcelona and Arsenal might have both fanbases expecting the entirely predictable (albeit offering different levels of excitement about the prospect), but the similarly familiar showdown between Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea is far harder to call.

Having split the previous two ties between the sides, the Anglo-French matchup would seem to be a genuine 50-50 proposition. But the two teams enter the first leg in markedly different situations: Chelsea, cut adrift in the Premier League, have little domestically to play for, while PSG are so far clear in Ligue 1 they could theoretically wrap up the league title before the second leg gets underway.

Given that the last two bouts between the European heavyweights have both been decided on away goals (and after extra-time), it seems unlikely there will be a clear winner this time around. With nothing else to focus on, can a misfiring Chelsea team really find a way to overwhelm the most dominant side on the continent?

Branislav Ivanovic opened the scoring midway through the first-half to give the Blues a valuable away goal, but Edinson Cavani headed home shortly before the hour-mark to level things up. The French side had the better chances to find a third goal, but Chelsea were ultimately content to take the draw

An action-packed game ended in thrilling fashion. Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s 31st minute red card – perhaps harsh, despite a late tackle on Oscar – seemed to end PSG’s hopes, especially when Gary Cahill headed home with nine minutes remaining to give Chelsea a 2-1 lead. David Luiz then scored against his former club to send the game to extra-time, but Thiago Silva’s handball allowed Eden Hazard to give Chelsea the lead again from the spot. That ended any possibility of a penalty shootout – but it was PSG who would have the last laugh, as Silva himself headed over Thibaut Courtois in the 114th minute to wrap up a remarkable away goals victory.

Eden Hazard cancelled out Ezequiel Lavezzi’s opener from the penalty spot, but a David Luiz own goal and Javier Pastore’s 93rd minute clincher seemed to put the French side in an imperious position.

Andre Schurrle scored in the first half to drag Chelsea back into contention … before Demba Ba’s bundled 87th minute finish wrapped up a remarkable away goals triumph. Jose Mourinho was so elated he joined the pile of players celebrating Ba’s intervention.

Total record: P37 W15 D11 L11 F63 A43 GD+20

CL record: P6 W4 D1 L1 F13 A3 GD+10 Pts 13

It turns out an abject start to the season was not even a blip, a title hangover for the Blues – they have not really got significantly better even since the dismissal of manager Jose Mourinho.

Premier League relegation may no longer be a serious worry but the team is firing on far from all cylinders, with Eden Hazard – so important in previous games against PSG, one of his old suitors – struggling for form along with a number of others.

Chelsea’s big problem has been in defence, where they have conceded more than a goal again amid injuries and inconsistent form for key players. Kurt Zouma was already injured, and then at the weekend the comforting thought of a return to the familiar Gary Cahill-John Terry axis was thrown out of the window after the latter suffered an injury in the (emphatic) win over Newcastle at the weekend. Hiddink was already sad about missing out on Zouma – “he was improving in all aspects,” Hiddink said ruefully last week – and with Terry gone too, the Blues will have a makeshift back-four in place in Paris.

Nevertheless, the Dutchman will be hoping that otherwise lukewarm recent Premier League results are a consequence of having nothing really to play for, rather than a sign of continuing functional issues within the squad.

Total record: P38 W32 D5 L1 F86 A15 GD+71

CL record: P6 W4 D1 L1 F12 A1 GD+11 Pts 13

The statistics underline just how dominant PSG have been all season – say what you will about the level of competition in France (and the competitive advantage PSG’s wealth gives them), the fact their only defeat all season came in a 1-0 loss to Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu shows that they are making things work for themselves.

Laurent Blanc’s side drew the reverse fixture against the Spanish side, finishing second in their Champions League group by beating Shakhtar Donetsk and Malmo home and away. In the league they have been utterly ruthless, gathering 69 of a possible 75 points to date. Three draws is all they have given away to go alongside seamless progress in the French Cup and French League Cup, making the club’s move to extend Blanc’s contract (despite the current unemployment of Jose Mourinho, for example) completely understandable.

The league is wrapped up – they are 24 points clear now, already on 69 points with second-placed Monaco tracking to finish the season on 68 – so everything can be poured into their Champions League ambitions. Barcelona are the one side that have consistently had the better of PSG over recent seasons, while Chelsea have been a dogged foe. Blanc, along with the club’s owners, will target a comfortable aggregate victory as a sign of the progress they continue to make.

Of course no club is immune from shooting itself in the foot - and PSG full-back Serge Aurier might have helped do that with some spectacularly ill-advised comments on social media over the weekend. The Ivorian has been provisionally suspended as a result, but it remains to be seen what effect some of his disparaging remarks will have on the players he mentioned.

Just like the previous meetings between these sides, the second leg will be at Stamford Bridge – handing Chelsea a nominal advantage in acknowledgement of the fact they actually won their group.

Players from both squads will be well aware of the dynamic of such meetings then, for better or worse. The 2014 showdown will have PSG players aware that even a two-goal first leg win will guarantee nothing, while the Blues will not be celebrating if they sneak a score draw or similar at the Parc des Princes.

Interestingly, the dismissal of Mourinho may change the dynamic – with PSG no longer so familiar with the approach of their opponents.

"The game will be more difficult without Mourinho,” midfielder Thiago Motta argued. “They've changed their game. When we played them in the last two seasons, they were a team who played on the counter and didn't want the ball.

"Nowadays, they're a team that tries to play. It will be difficult."

As mentioned above, Terry and Zouma are the major absentees for Chelsea; PSG have their own problem, with the influential Marco Verratti struggling to the start line after being hit recently with a groin injury.

Javier Pastore, David Luiz and Blaise Matuidi are all also doubts, but the latter two in particular are expected to be fit and available.

Chelsea striker Diego Costa may be hampered slightly by the broken nose he suffered in training last week, but other than that Chelsea will be able to put forward a strong side for the match - and, with PSG drawing 0-0 at the weekend, may actually go into the game with more confidence than their opponents after their evisceration of Newcastle.

Another tie that involves familiar foes – the two teams have faced each four times since 2012, with Zenit winning three of the four games. Andre Villas-Boas’s side will have to get up to speed quickly amid the Russian domestic off-season, but Benfica are not quite the force they were under Jorge Jesus.

What could have been for Manchester United, who would have fancied their chances against Gent had they managed to beat Wolfsburg in their final group stage game at the end of 2015. As it is, Dieter Hecking’s side will surely fancy their chances of reaching the quarter-finals – heady days for the German club.

An intriguing match-up between two European giants who had different managers when the draw was actually made. Real will be comfortable favourites – but Roma actually won when the two sides met in similar circumstances in 2008. Can they possibly repeat the trick this time around?