The phoney war: Why the Champions League group stages mean next to nothing

Zinedine Zidane was evidently disappointed, but didn’t exactly seem dismayed. His Real Madrid team had just let a two-goal lead over Borussia Dortmund slip, also letting first-place in their group slip, in what was notionally Wednesday night’s biggest Champions League match. Its effects didn’t seem all that sizeable though.

“I haven’t thought about the draw,” Zidane said, when asked about the effects of finishing second and who he’d like to get. “I wanted us to finish top and we did everything to do that but I’m not going to keep going over it.”

The reality is there isn't much to go over, and that applies to the group stage as a whole. In all but the case of Tottenham Hotspur, the two wealthiest teams in the group got through. Half of them enjoyed at least one victory by four goals or more. Barcelona got three such victories. It was all so predictable, when even the entertaining goal gluts seemed a consequence of the absence of any sense of suspense rather than because there was anything on the line.

There was even the feeling from those close to the Real Madrid squad - and, it must be said, from Zidane - that they didn’t really mind finishing second. They wouldn’t have got two competition favourites in Barcelona or Atletico Madrid either way due to country protection, and now avoid Bayern Munich as well as Borussia Dortmund, with Juventus the only other first-place side with recent competition pedigree.

It emphasises the feeling of phoney war about the opening round, but also how the Champions League has become such a two-tiered competition in every sense.

The massive financial chasm between the elite and the rest has created immensely predictable groups that generally shut out all but the richest clubs, but that has in turn fostered a more open and relatively unpredictable knock-out stage, where those richest clubs clash against each other. There, the nuances of knock-out football and little moments of luck can almost have a bigger effect than the tangible differences between teams - at least until you get to Real, Barca or Bayern.

The Champions League elimination stages have almost become a European Super Bowl in that sense, where there is something close to competitive financial parity between around eight to 10 clubs. That is why there isn’t really much to go over from the opening stage. What, after all, are the main take-homes?

One could be that the really big three - Real, Bayern and Barca - do look collectively more vulnerable than at any point in the last seven years, a period that has seen them occupy 62.5% of all semi-final places since 2010.

Bayern and Real finished second in their groups, while Barca looked as beatable against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City as they have done in the Spanish league this season. City’s own performance at the Etihad suggests they might have more to come in this competition, and there is now the chance Arsenal could finally go further than the last-16, since they at finished first in a group for the first time in five years.

All of that does perhaps herald an even more open latter stage, and perhaps the possibility that the trophy will be won by someone other than those three sides for the first time since 2012. It is also encouraging that Bayern and Real finished second to Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund, respectively, since the latter two have been the competition’s most over-performing underdogs across that period.

At the same time, it sums up the state of things when two of the historically biggest clubs in Germany and Spain are cast as some kind of upstarts. Their own recent history, however, also indicates not to read too much into any of this. Both have blazed through the competition before, only to be undone by the most marginal moments, with all three of their recent finals going right down to the last seconds. In other words, to be undone by those nuances of knock-out football.

And that feeds into the wider point about why the group stage matters less than ever, why form in it is relatively meaningless. It can all evaporate in an instant, especially against a second-placed side that suddenly come to life.

That’s another reason why Zidane is right not to be too bothered. There’s so much time between now and the knock-out stages that everything can change. Barcelona were exactly like this in their last treble season in 2014-15. They went from a situation where it looked like Luis Enrique’s sacking was inevitable, to one where a supreme run from January brought another incredible haul of titles.

Real also won the competition last season despite never looking any way convincing throughout, while Carlo Ancelotti’s Bayern could yet benefit from the same effect the Italian enjoyed in 2013-14 in Madrid, or much earlier in Milan.

The German champions’ struggles in moving on from Guardiola this season hardly represent the first time when one of Ancelotti’s sides have had poor form or underwhelmed domestically. It was exactly like that in both 2002-03 and 2006-07 with Milan, and 2013-14 with Real. On each of those occasions, though, he won the trophy.

And that’s one of the most depressing things of all. If the early stages meant little then, over a decade ago, what do they mean now?

Close to nothing, in a competition that used to mean everything. That early tension is gone. You can't even read too much into results, because the richest teams know they'll get through; that they'll be there when it really matters. It’s all become one grand continental pre-season.

No wonder Zidane wasn't too dismayed.