Final Premier League table 'revealed': Chelsea to set new points record, Arsenal to finish sixth

Updated 07/04/2017 at 10:02 GMT

We've crunched the numbers ahead of the run-in and found that Chelsea will* set a new points record, while Manchester United and Arsenal are set to miss out on the top four.

Chelsea's David Luiz and Arsenal's Arsene Wenger

Image credit: Eurosport

This has been a huge week for the Premier League’s top six. Two thrill-a-minute rounds of matches have shaken up the top teams, but whose Champions League hopes have been boosted and which teams are on the slide?

Well we've studied who the big teams still have to play, what their results were against the same opponents earlier in the season, and where that means they would finish if (and that's a big if) the results are repeated.

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How things stand

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Chelsea

The loss to Crystal Palace sparked talk of a title race that had seemed long since dead and buried, but Chelsea’s narrow win over Manchester City should be enough to keep them clear at the top.

The gap as it stands is seven points, with only Manchester United and Everton looking like potential dropped points in an otherwise straightforward run-in.

But if Chelsea’s results against their final eight opponents match the scorelines when they met each club earlier in the season, then they will collect a maximum 24 points from here on in. That would see Antonio Conte’s side finish on 96 points, breaking the Premier League points record in the process.

Chelsea's Gary Cahill celebrates after the match

Image credit: Reuters

Even if things don’t go swimmingly for Chelsea, they will still need to drop points in at least three of these matches:

Chelsea's remaining fixtures

Bournemouth (a)
Manchester United (a)
Southampton (h)
Watford (h)**
Everton (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
West Bromwich Albion (a)
Sunderland (h)

That looks unlikely and probably wouldn’t even be enough to surrender the title.

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 1st

Points – 96

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Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino celebrates after the match

Image credit: Reuters

Tottenham Hotspur

The only team in the top seven to take a maximum six points from the week, Spurs have strengthened their grip on a top four place and kept a glimmer of a title challenge alive.

However, Mauricio Pochettino’s side would do well to heed Hugo Lloris’ advice:

We're still focused on ourselves. We need to carry on because it's very tight in the league behind us. Anything can happen so it's important to stay involved, to stay together and keep fighting until the end because we want to finish as high as possible in this league and be back in the Champions League. We don't talk about the title because even seven points is a big gap at this stage of the season.

Spurs have got a very healthy 11-point buffer between themselves and both Arsenal and Manchester United in fifth and sixth. Yet those two chasing teams both have a game in hand and are each coming to White Hart Lane before the end of the season. There’s still a chance for the season to go wrong for Tottenham.

The key for Spurs to cement their place in the Champions League is to keep this winning run going through until the FA Cup semi-final weekend. Do that and they should have enough of a buffer to absorb some dropped points in what looks like a tough last five games of the campaign.

Spurs' remaining fixtures

Watford (h)
Bournemouth (h)
Leicester City (a)**
Crystal Palace (a)
Arsenal (h)
West Ham (a)
Manchester United (h)
Hull City (a)

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 2nd

Points – 80

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Liverpool

Oh Liverpool. Wednesday’s draw against Bournemouth summed up their season and almost made Jurgen Klopp physically sick with frustration.

On the plus side for Liverpool their run-in looks by far the best of the top four hopefuls.

But unfortunately those ‘beatable’ opponents are exactly who Liverpool have struggled against this season, with trips to Stoke City and West Brom over the next ten days looking particularly tough.

Liverpool's remaining fixtures

Stoke City (a)
West Bromwich Albion (a)
Crystal Palace (h)
Watford (a)
Southampton (h)
West Ham (a)
Middlesbrough (h)

Klopp’s side have points on the board, but have played a game more than the rest of the top four and two games more than the chasing Arsenal and United, leaving them vulnerable if those teams take advantage of the points on offer.

However, having the points is the best place to be at this stage, so Liverpool should still make that top four.

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 3rd

Points – 77

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Manchester City's Sergio Aguero celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates

Image credit: Reuters

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola conceded the title after Wednesday’s 2-1 loss at Chelsea.

Today the Premier League has gone. It’s between Chelsea and Tottenham now. Now we have to think about qualifying for the Champions League and finishing in the top four.

He’s probably right – 14 points is way too big a gap for a team to make up over eight games, particularly one that hasn’t won in four.

But City’s fixtures are kind and they should have enough to make it into the top four. A game against their local rivals United on April 27 could be crucial.

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

Hull City (h)
Southampton (a)
West Brom (h)**
Manchester United (h)
Middlesbrough (a)
Crystal Palace (h)
Leicester City (h)
Watford (a)

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 4th

Points – 75

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Jose Mourinho

Image credit: Reuters

Manchester United

The excuses continue to flow from Jose Mourinho, but his Manchester United team do at least have games in hand over the teams they’re chasing in the top four. The gap is not insurmountable, but United will want to keep Zlatan Ibrahimovic as fit as possible to avoid too many more bore draws.

A glance at the fixtures is less encouraging for United.

Manchester United's remaining fixtures

Sunderland (a)
Southampton (a)**
Chelsea (h)
Burnley (a)
Manchester City (a)
Swansea City (h)
Arsenal (a)
Tottenham Hotspur (a)
Crystal Palace (h)

Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Spurs are all still to come in the final nine games, while there’s also a tricky away trip to the notoriously tough Turf Moor, plus games against a trio of teams who may well still be fighting relegation – Sunderland, Swansea and Crystal Palace.

Making up enough points to jump into the top four appears to be a tall order and United fans will have to hope that Mourinho manages to keep it together enough to set up an improved second season in charge.

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 5th

Points – 71

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Arsenal

Wednesday’s 3-0 drubbing of West Ham has temporarily silenced the storm around Arsenal.

But the Gunners go into their run-in 11 points behind rivals Spurs and trailing the Champions League qualification places by four points.

However, we’ve been here before. Arsenal have consistently produced good form once title hopes have been lost, and it would be little surprise to see them put together a run to sneak into the top four.

The worry for Arsene Wenger will be the teams coming up have caused his side problems already this season.

Arsenal's remaining fixtures

Crystal Palace (a)
Middlesbrough (a)
Sunderland (h)**
Southampton (a) **
Leicester City (h)
Tottenham Hotspur (a)
Manchester United (h)
Stoke City (a)
Everton (h)

Boro, Leicester, Spurs, United and Everton all took points off the Gunners earlier in the season, and that run of matches doesn’t look hugely straightforward.

Sunderland may well be down when the rescheduled game comes around, but Palace and Boro won’t, making those very difficult matches. Can Arsenal defy the odds and survive again?

Expected finish based on previous head-to-head form:

Place – 6th

Points – 70

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*All of the predicted finishes are based on results mirroring the points tally from games against the same opponents earlier in the season. We've watched football for long enough to know that this will not be the case, but it does give a rough estimation of what the six teams need to do during the run-in.

**Chelsea's home game against Watford, Man City's home game against West Brom, Arsenal's home game against Sunderland and away game at Southampton, Manchester United's trip to Southampton and Tottenham's trip to Leicester have been postponed due to cup commitments and are yet to be rearranged

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