Pep Guardiola would have been sacked by a big club - but could thrive next season at Manchester City

Pep Guardiola raised more than a few eyebrows in his press conference ahead of Tuesday night’s match against West Brom, but I have to say I agree with him when he says he would have been sacked by a “big club” for the season he has had at Manchester City. The difference is that City are not a big club, and Guardiola, though he has struggled in some ways, has actually laid the right groundwork despite the club's struggles. With a few notable changes, City could be a very exciting proposition next season.

Guardiola is essentially correct of course: if at Barcelona or Bayern Munich you are finishing third, and not even challenging for the title until the end of the season, then you would be sacked. Not winning a single trophy and being knocked out of the Champions League at the quarter-final stage would be utterly unacceptable at either of his two previous clubs.

But Guardiola is not at those clubs any more. At City, the landscape is rather different, even if that’s where they want to be eventually. Expectations are rather lower, and let’s be honest, the standard of the league is rather higher in England. There’s six clubs who could realistically win the title and that’s a new challenge for a man who has operated in two-horse and then one-horse leagues before.

Guardiola has struggled as a result and even Champions League qualification isn’t technically secure ahead of tonight’s game against West Brom. But even if City lose either that game or their final match against Watford, and Arsenal win both of their remaining two matches, it will still come down to goal difference and City’s is five better than Arsenal’s. There is no chance they won’t finish in the top four.

The claim that City aren’t a “big club” might seem controversial on the face of things but surely even the most ardent of City fans wouldn’t try and make the claim that their club is at the level of Barca or Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Juventus. In that sense, Guardiola is right: City are not a “big club”. They don’t have the history and prestige of the true European royalty.

City have maybe the most money of any club in world football; their resources are in theory bottomless. But money is not the only factor which determines a big club. Barcelona aren’t the biggest spenders in the world. Okay they might go out and spend huge amounts on Luis Suarez, but it isn’t their business model. Bayern Munich are the same. They go out and recruit the best players for the job; it’s not about breaking the transfer record every year.

Going out and spending huge amounts of money certainly helps your marketing team. Look at how Manchester United went into a frenzy, no doubt hitting all their KPIs, after getting Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic – making big signings is becoming the end, rather than just the means to the end these days. But no matter how slick your marketing design, it always looks nicer with a big trophy plastered over it.

Maybe there’s a bit of politics in there from Guardiola. By playing down City’s size he makes his failure to win a trophy more acceptable; as if it’s normal for a club like City, even though they have spent so much money in pursuit of being the best. And I think there is a lot of truth in it to be honest.

Do they really have a squad capable of challenging for the Champions League? They couldn’t even challenge Tottenham for the Premier League. Guardiola bears responsibility for what happens on the pitch but the tools at his disposal are not up to scratch, and that’s a problem of recruitment. Txiki Begiristain and Ferran Soriano were preparing for Pep’s arrival for years, which makes it doubly strange that the squad they handed over to him was so deficient.

There wasn’t much for him to work with, if we are being blunt about it. But I still give him real credit for trying to put his own stamp on the squad and to try and change the way they play. It hasn’t quite come to fruition this season but it gives them a good platform for next season, when they should be strengthened by the addition of more Guardiola players. With a few changes they could reach the next level.

A great goalkeeper is a good start, and City don’t have one. People also always talk about the famous back fours of years gone by, and Chelsea’s impressive back-three unit this season, and City don’t have a settled defence by any means; Vincent Kompany, John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi, Aleksandar Kolarov… it changes all the time at the back.

The full-backs are also vital in a Guardiola team and the current collection aren’t up to the job. Pablo Zabaleta is leaving at the end of the season and Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna could follow. Guardiola wants full-backs who tuck into midfield when City have the ball and underlap, rather than overlap on the wing.

City have been great with the ball at their feet in the final third though and I’ve been really impressed by their attacking performance. If Guardiola improves the personnel at his disposal then we will see a vast improvement from City next season. That’s not to say, however, that he shouldn’t tinker with his approach a bit and adapt further to the English game.

Guardiola’s been quite open about the fact that he has made mistakes this season and has suffered from a lack of understanding about the English game. You think about axing Joe Hart so ruthlessly in order to get a keeper who can play, which doesn’t work in the Premier League, and then seeing Claudio Bravo struggle so badly. You think of the away trip to Leicester and playing a dangerously high line against Jamie Vardy, who scored a hat-trick. You think of City’s constant struggles in the penalty box, where the English physicality makes a big difference.

He has to adapt to all these realities, without compromising on his overall beliefs. If he can do that juggling act successfully, and the right players are brought in, then City could fly next season.