On Reflection: Why November is the cruellest month for Arsenal

We saw two sides to Arsene Wenger this weekend. There was the philosophical side, battling with the demon of Time – “it’s scary… there is less to come than the time you already spent” – not to mention his sacrifices for Art – “my constant battle in this job is to bring out the beauty in man” – and his fear of the future without being a football coach. That came via a fascinating interview with Erik Bielderman in Sport & Style magazine.

Then we saw his pragmatic side, in his substitutions in the 1-1 draw against Spurs, a result that keeps Arsenal joint-top of the Premier League despite being second-best for much of the game. He took off Santi Cazorla and Joel Campbell, bringing on Mathieu Flamini and Kieran Gibbs who, from his position as left-winger, scored the equaliser.

It turned out to be a decent result for Arsenal, especially as Manchester City also dropped points in the goalless draw at Villa Park – and that Arsenal’s injury-list is currently as long as… well, usual, really.

The last time Arsenal were so close to the top at this time of year was 2013-14, when they topped the league from September to February before collapsing in March – losing at Stoke (0-1), Chelsea (0-6) and then dropping points to Swansea (2-2) and Manchester City (0-0). Despite winning their last five games, they ended up in fourth.

The more significant March collapse came in 2011, at a time when Arsenal were second place and only one point behind leaders Manchester United. Then came the League Cup final defeat to Birmingham City, a chance to win a first piece of silverware for six years, and after that, a slump in results: league draws with Sunderland, WBA and Blackburn, a Champions League elimination at Barcelona, and league defeats at Manchester United and Bolton.

Those two seasons are why many fans believe that springtime is the time to worry, the period when injuries really bite because there is no winter break – a point reiterated by Leicester boss Claudio Ranieri, who said, “It's vital that the Premier League has a winter break, as English clubs always drop off around March-April time,” this weekend – and when Arsenal’s title challenge usually splutters.

This is known as confirmation bias, as we use small samples to confirm a belief we already hold. The truth is that March is Arsenal’s most successful month, with the highest win percentage and most points per game won.

Here is the table looking at Arsenal’s Premier League form, since 1992, on a month-by-month basis:

The numbers are astonishing: in November, Arsenal’s win percentage (45 per cent) is lowest, loss percentage (nearly 34 per cent) is highest and their points per game are 1.58, the lowest by a 0.2 margin. What can be behind this dip, which, as it’s over a 23-year period, cannot be put down to tricky fixtures?

From that point of view, Arsenal should have little to complain about this season: their next games after the international break are against WBA, Norwich and Sunderland.

The two other factors that could be responsible are European fixtures, and injuries. November is when Matchdays Four and Five are played, and these are often the most important in the group. It’s the only month bar September where two group games take place – then you have to look at February/March for the knock-out games.

March is historically Arsenal’s best month in the league, and it’s a short-term (and cynical) view to suggest that it combines with a European exit, as it has done in each of the last five seasons (but in only one of the five before that).

The problem with the injuries is that these are an ongoing and all-round concern. Only Arsenal have the specific data on how many players are unavailable at certain times of the year but it has to be said that the appointment of Shad Forsythe as Head of Athletic Performance Enhancement, on the back of his role as part of Germany’s World Cup-winning squad, has made little impact so far on Arsenal’s wretched injury run.

There are plenty of theories for this: that Wenger overtrains his players pre- and mid-season; rushes them back from lay-offs too quickly; ignores ‘red-zone’ warnings when players may be susceptible to soft-tissue injuries; has too small a squad so is pressured into over-selecting players; is so keen on working with the ball that it’s at the expense of strength-work.

Wenger told Bielderman that the biggest pain in his job was: “Being questioned on everything that has been done after every single loss, despite the consistency we’ve put in our work at the highest level. The immediate ‘chuck it all out’ reaction.”

You can understand his response but even he has conceded that the injury-record is a problem. His former scout, and ex-sporting director of Liverpool and Spurs, Damien Comolli, told BBC 5Live on Sunday that Arsenal continue to carry out audits on what might be behind the injury issues.

The international break is double-edged for Wenger. It gives some of his players a chance to come back from their lay-offs, and others more opportunities to get injured. If it’s a nervous 10 days for the Frenchman, he may well be relieved to reach the end of November with his team still breathing down City’s neck.

TS Eliot wrote in The Wasteland that “April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain.” For Arsenal, it’s definitely November.