Chelsea need a miracle to even qualify for the Champions League next season

There is no magic number of points for securing Champions League qualification. In the 13 seasons since Chelsea scraped into that club via a closing-day 2-1 win over Liverpool, the very game that attracted Roman Abramovich's investment, the number of points secured by the fourth-placed team has varied widely.

The lowest two figures, those secured by Liverpool in 2003-04 and Everton the following season, were 60 and 61 points. That shows the absolute minimum any side has done in recent years to manage the feat. Though given the latter case saw a side occupy fourth place with a negative goal difference, this reinforces the unusual nature of those seasons.

The best points total secured by a fourth-placed side over that time was the 79 points earned by Arsenal in 2013/14. That was a remarkable feat for a side coming behind three others, and also appears to have been a statistical blip. Manchester United, in winning the title in 2010/11, only managed one more point, and that tally of 79 points would have been enough to win the title in each of the years between 1996 and 1999.

The average points total for fourth place in the past 13 years is 70 points. To reach that target, Chelsea now need to secure an average of 2.27 points per game. That is a standard of form which, transposed to a full season, would have won the league in any season in Premier League history, excepting 2011/12 (when Manchester United were pipped in injury time on goal difference by their City rivals). Chelsea require title-winning form just to get into the Champions League.

Looking at the table the current fourth-place side, Manchester United, have 24 points after 12 games. That suggests, should their form and that of those around them continue, a more competitive season can be expected at the top end. So, as many as 76 points could be the required level to make the cut.

Thus, assuming fourth place is a now pipe dream, what about the other avenues into the Champions League?

Chelsea, from the magic of their win in Munich in 2012, know a poor domestic season can be erased by lifting the Champions League trophy itself.

Unlike in that season, such a feat would not carry what was for Chelsea fans the added bonus of eliminating the fourth-placed side (then, notably, London rivals Tottenham). Now, leagues are awarded the far more logical prize of an additional place should a team from outside the qualifying ranks make it to the following season's draw by lifting the trophy.

Jose Mourinho was questioned on more or less this point, three weeks back, when he said: “When you prioritise in this league, you have a big risk, which is the risk of not winning the Champions League and not finishing top four, and not playing Champions League the next season.”

That, of course, came before this present run of three consecutive league defeats – and was at a time when fourth place was still a reasonably achievable goal.

There is also a new and somewhat easier route into the Champions League – though were Chelsea to fancy this, it would probably require them to lose one or two more games.

Wining the Europa League, for the first time last season, carries with it Champions League qualification. It would be a less testing route than via glory in the senior competition, but would require the chutzpah to chuck away what presently looks like the formality of progression from the group stages of the Champions League.

Third place, at least, is guaranteed in Chelsea's group – but one can't imagine any side would opt to go out of the Champions League for such reasons.

Essentially, Chelsea are now reliant on a remarkable turn of events to secure qualification for next season's Champions League. And, should that fairytale not unfold, there will be significant losses when it comes to revenue, playing staff, and the club's ability to attract talent.

Though, as recent history has shown, never rule out a miracle.