The race for the top four: Which teams are going to miss out?

While it is an utter fallacy to say that the Premier League is the best league in the world, a fairly solid argument can be made for it playing host to the highest calibre of coaches.

The current top six have high end coaches at their helm. Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola and Antonio Conte all fall under the ‘super coach’ banner, while Mauricio Pochettino and Jurgen Klopp's current trajectory suggests they could soon join them.

Having been in charge of Arsenal since 1996, Arsene Wenger is an outlier of sorts, but, suffice to say, were he to leave the Gunners, there would be no shortage of European clubs - and some of those superpowers - willing to take on his employment.

The minimum requirement for all the above managers at the start of the season will have been Champions League qualification.

Chelsea are a shoo-in for one of those places and probably the title. That leaves five teams vying for three spots. How do they measure up?

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Position: 2nd

Points: 53

Games left: 12

Being knocked out of the Europa League could prove a blessing. Pochettino has a settled, strong first XI but, after a haphazard recruitment policy over the summer, their bench is substantially weaker. It is crucial therefore that Spurs’ starters are as fresh as possible. Arduous trips around Europe – looking at you Manchester United – would have undoubtedly affected Tottenham's ability to adhere to Pochettino’s high intensity ideals.

Tottenham are two points better off than at the same stage last season, with the added experience of a title challenge under their belt.

As noted by Jonathan Wilson here, Pochettino sides are susceptible to fatigue. The 44-year-old is a fully paid up member of the Marcelo Bielsa school of hard-pressing. It can be highly effective but as Wilson noted back in March of last year there tends to be a drop off in points in the last third of the season. That was certainly the case last year, when they finished third. With the other protagonists manifestly stronger this season, any such drop could be far more costly.

Burnley v Tottenham – 01/04/17

Tottenham v Arsenal – 30/04/17

Tottenham v Manchester United -13/05/17

None for Pochettino. He is overachieving as it is. However, it will undoubtedly impact their recruitment over the summer, and after last summer's travails they can't afford another poor window.

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Position: 3rd

Points: 52

Games left: 13

After the 4-0 mauling against Everton, Guardiola it seems has settled on his best team and formation (4-1-4-1). They are shipping less goals of late and, while it has taken a little longer than expected, their front five are capable of prising open the tightest of defences. Guardiola’s City represent a high end version of Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle circa 1995/96: too flawed to win a title but capable of destroying anyone.

Their fixture list. City play four of the top six in the run in. Arsenal away followed by Chelsea away in the space of three days in April looks daunting and a loss in either or both of those fixtures could have near fatal impact on momentum. Despite recent improvements, their defence remains a concern. Guardiola remains a philosophical fundamentalist and steadfastly refuses to compromise his tactical doctrine to shore up his defence. It has cost City before and could do again – particularly against sides as good as Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United.

Manchester City v Liverpool 19/03/17

Arsenal v Manchester City – 02/04/17

Chelsea v Manchester City – 05/04/17

Manchester City v Manchester United - TBC

Gauriola's reputation takes a hit. The club will back him and the summer reinforcements should address that shoddy defence.

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Position: 4th

Points: 50

Games left: 13

Death, taxes and Arsenal making the top four. They have the experience, and the quality. They are more than likely out of Europe so can focus on the league. They have had their mid-season slump and, empirical evidence suggests that will finish the season strongly enough to claim at least fourth.

The Gunners brought a two-game losing streak to an end with a 2-0 win against Hull last time out but, truth be told, they were flattered by the scoreline in what was a performance riddled with nerves. The atmosphere inside the stadium has taken on renewed angst and anger in recent weeks and it looks like it is impacting on the players – they have lost two of their last five at home. They have City and United to come at home, so home form will prove key.

Liverpool v Arsenal – 04/03/17

Arsenal v Manchester City - 02/04/17

Tottenham v Arsenal – 30/04/17

Arsenal v Manchester United - 06/05/17

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Position: 5th

Points: 49

Games left: 12

There have been some relatively unflattering comparisons made between Jurgen Klopp and Brendan Rodgers in recent weeks. But perhaps the similarity that might have the biggest bearing on where Liverpool finish the season is the fact that just like when Rodgers’ Liverpool went close to winning the league back in 2013-14, Klopp’s Liverpool have no other commitments other than the league. Given the physically taxing nature of Klopp’s demands, it could prove a crucial marginal gain over the other contenders.

As Alex Hess noted in his column back in early February, Klopp’s sides are susceptible to pretty substantial losing streaks. The Reds appear to knee deep in one of those ruts now, having won just one of their last seven in the league. At the turn of the year, they were five points shy of Chelsea and looked the best bet to challenge the London club but are now 14 points adrift in fifth. Lose against Arsenal and they will be four points shy of the top four having played a game more.

Liverpool v Arsenal – 04/03/17

Manchester City v Arsenal – 19/03/17

Liverpool v Everton – 01/04/17

Klopp signed a six-year deal last summer but failure to make the Champions League will not cost him his job. However, failure to make Europe's Premier competition will have wide-reaching implications on their summer shopping.

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Position: 6th

Points: 48

Games left: 13

United are unbeaten in the league since the 4-0 drubbing at Chelsea in late October. They have become a model of consistency and efficiency. After tinkering earlier in the season, Mourinho seems to have settled on a 4-2-3-1 system that gets the best out of his expensively assembled ensemble.

United sat in sixth place after drawing 1-1 with Arsenal back on November 19. They have since raked up a further eight wins and five draws to sit sixth. As it stands, they do not play another contender – bar Chelsea – until May 6. They have no top four six pointers on the horizon, and if they continue at their current trajectory (perennially being in sixth) by the time they do have one, they could be out of the reckoning.

Manchester United v Chelsea - 16/04/17

Arsenal v Manchester United – 06/05/17

Manchester City v Manchester United - TBC

The accountants will not be happy with a number of commercial deals said to be tied to United’s participation in the Champions League. An inability to make the Champions League cost both David Moyes and Louis van Gaal their jobs. That fate will not await Mourinho but will undoubtedly intensify pressure on the Portuguese.