The Contenders: Can anyone stop Rafael Nadal at the French Open?

Updated 26/05/2017 at 11:05 GMT

With Rafa Nadal looking ominously good ahead of the French Open, Ben Snowball glances through the world’s top 10 players and predicts how they will fare at Roland Garros…

Dominic Thiem, Rafael Nadal

Image credit: Eurosport

N.B. Predictions were initially made on Thursday, then updated after Friday's draw - which is bad news for Dominic Thiem...

1. Andy Murray

What has happened to Andy Murray?

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The Brit was meant to take considerable strides towards completing a Career Slam in 2017; instead, he’s facing the ignominy of surrendering his spot as world number one with a limp. Murray arrives at Roland Garros in dreadful form, with just five wins on clay under his belt and almost no-one tipping him to triumph in the French capital. Has there ever been less hype about the world's best player ahead of a Major?

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Still, Murray can at least be considered a dark horse. Ivan Lendl returns to his box – an emotionless courtside presence that seems to inspire the 30-year-old to greatness – to tackle his favourite task: make Murray good again.

Prediction: Third round (defeat to Del Potro)

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2. Novak Djokovic

Again, Djokovic is an unknown quantity – a judgement that never looked possible after years of dominance.

He’s booted out his entire coaching team, replacing them with the untried Andre Agassi, as he returns to the scene of his most recent Slam triumph. His form is steadily improving on the red dust, reaching the quarter-finals in Monte Carlo, the semi-finals in Madrid and lastly the final in Rome. Continue that pattern and it’ll be a successful title defence…

Prediction: Semi-final (defeat to Nadal)

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3. Stan Wawrinka

If you thought Murray’s recent results were poor, then spare a thought for Wawrinka. The world number three failed to progress beyond the third round in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and is showing few signs that he can replicate his 2015 triumph.

But, then again, when does he ever? Wawrinka is the ultimate occasion player – rocking up to a Slam with mediocre form, slowly improving throughout the tournament before decimating a seemingly superior opponent in the final. But even by his pre-Slam standards, it’s been a poor showing from the Swiss. A title bid looks well beyond him in 2017.

Prediction: Third round (defeat to Fognini)

4. Rafa Nadal

Rafa’s back!

La Decima beckons for the Spaniard after a scintillating clay-court season yielding three titles and a solitary defeat. The nine-time champion at Roland Garros probably can’t believe his luck, with the top two in the world out of sorts and current bogeyman Roger Federer avoiding Paris completely.

Nadal’s baseline dominance is back, his rip-roaring forehands are reaching opponents at shoulder height and his ruthless match play – producing big shots on the big points – looks set to carry him to the title.

Prediction: Champion

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5. Roger Federer

Absent.

6. Milos Raonic

The Canadian is yet to progress beyond the quarter-finals at Roland Garros. That run looks likely to extend in 2017.

At 26, Raonic desperately needs to win a Grand Slam soon. He’s ominously close to being burdened with the ‘nearly man’ tag that has plagued so many before him, with Alexander Zverev about to lead a new generation into the spotlight. It's unlikely to arrive in Paris, though.

Prediction: Fourth round (defeat to Dimitrov)

Milos Raonic

Image credit: Reuters

7. Dominic Thiem

The obvious successor to Nadal at Roland Garros, but will he be crowned in 2017?

Thiem is the only man to unsettle the Spaniard on clay this season, with their three meetings culminating in a glorious – and richly-deserved – win for the Austrian in Rome. But what followed was disastrous. A 6-1 6-0 defeat to Djokovic in the semi-finals hauled him back down to earth, with the bookies quickly bumping up his odds of glory in Paris.

The world number seven will likely have to knock out at least two – and possibly three – big names to win the title. Sure, he’s proved he can beat Nadal in a one-off match, but can he beat Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back? Actually, can he beat Djokovic at all? His lesson in Rome suggests not.

Prediction: Quarter-final (defeat to Djokovic)

Thiem-Nadal - Roma 2017 (Getty Images)

Image credit: Getty Images

8. Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic has never enjoyed much luck on clay, with his big-serving game unsuited to the red dust. He’s reached the fourth round at the French Open on three occasions, going no further, and is unlikely to be a contender.

Still, he will be buoyed by his performance in Istanbul, where he beat Raonic to win his first title on clay in five years. You never know...

Prediction: Third round (defeat to Ferrer)

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9. Kei Nishikori

Nishikori’s game is built for hard courts, with his aggressive style rarely proving fruitful on slower clay surfaces. His results have been OK in 2017, but average won’t be enough to stop a straight sets defeat to Nadal, Thiem and Co.

Like Raonic, the Japanese hopeful needs a Slam triumph soon, but – barring a miracle – it won’t come at Roland Garros.

Prediction: Fourth round (defeat to A.Zverev)

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10. Alexander Zverev

An outside bet.

Zverev’s steady progress on clay culminated in victory at the Rome Masters, where he downed Djokovic 6-4 6-3 in the final. But could he stop Nadal? The formbook says no, with the German 20-year-old haunted by a 6-1 6-1 loss to the 14-time Grand Slam champion in Monte Carlo in April.

He’s many people’s tip to dominate men’s tennis over the next decade, but his accession is unlikely to be completed in 2017.

Prediction: Final (defeat to Nadal)

Alexander Zverev poses with Rod Laver

Image credit: Getty Images

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