US Open 2016: Big Four more vulnerable than ever - but can the rest take advantage?

Roger Federer will play no part in this year’s US Open, but such is his power, he still made his presence felt across New York ahead of the final major of 2016. A few days before the draw ceremony, Federer could be seen throwing himself into promotional events across the city for the Laver Cup, a brand new men’s only team event pitting Europe against the Rest of The World in a format based on the Ryder Cup, which will make its debut next year in Prague.

Of all the different men’s tennis generations in the Open Era, there couldn’t have been a stranger time to think up such an event. Competition seems laughable in a world in which there is not even any comparison between the tennis powers of Europe and the rest of the world. Thanks mostly to tennis’ Big Four, European male players have sauntered to victory in 93 straight events across Slams, Masters 1000 titles and Olympic singles events, dating back to 2010.

And yet, on the eve of the final Slam of the year, the influence of the Big Four over events on the court has never been weaker.

Aside from Federer’s withdrawal from the US Open and the rest of 2016, Rafael Nadal arrives in New York under the strangest circumstances. The Spaniard’s performances at the Olympics were one of the highlights of a tournament filled with a level of passion - and tears - rarely reached during the regular grind of the tennis year. The fact that Nadal departed Rio with a doubles Gold medal and a fourth-place singles finish despite arriving at the Games with only a dozen light practices under his belt after being injured for two months adds yet another chapter to the epic book of Nadal’s mental conquests.

But nothing can be extrapolated from Nadal’s Olympic exploits. The Spaniard was inspired throughout the Games by his naked passion for the event and the desperation to make up for his withdrawal from London 2012, as well as benefitting from a weak singles field. However, the reality of Nadal’s position was clear a week ago at the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati when, completely exhausted, he was forced to sit and watch himself fall to Borna Coric in a cringeworthy 6-1 6-3 beatdown. Nadal will be much fresher in New York, but he lacks match fitness after his layoff and his wrist is still recovering and yet to regain perfect fluidity through his forehand swing. None of these things, nor his earlier results outside of his clay court terrain, are usually conducive to any deep run.

Most significantly, for once, even Djokovic isn’t above the Big Four’s problems in 2016. The top seed talked about personal issues surrounding his loss to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon, but the more pressing issue is the left wrist injury he sustained a few days before the Olympics. Djokovic struggled to hit through backhands in his first round loss to Juan Martin Del Potro in Rio and whispers about the extent of this injury have circulated since, with the rigorous wrist exercises during his first practices in New York only fueling speculation.

That the world number one, usually secretive about every aspect of his body, has been so open about his race to be fit for this year’s US Open says a few things, and nothing good, about his chances of being sufficiently fit for the two grueling weeks ahead. History and cynicism would suggest that Djokovic will be fine and ready to efficiently reassert his dominance, but in a year when the most injury-resistant top player in history, Federer, has been reduced to a sickbed case, relying on history to predict the future isn’t quite the accurate science.

What this means is that, of the four dominant players over the past decade, only Andy Murray arrives in New York with any kind of passable preparation as he continues a career season. Theoretically, this is a great coup for the rest of the tour. After the oppression the Big Four have inflicted on the rest of the men’s field for the best part of the last decade, it should present a real opportunity. But the other narrative permeating the final Slam of the year is the fact that the rest of the ATP is clearly not ready.

Only half of the ATP top 30 showed up for the Olympics, yet in Cincinnati, faced with a completely exhausted Murray, who expected to lose early, the field was as impotent as ever. Murray heaped shame and embarrassment on all by zombie-walking all the way to the final of one of the biggest tennis tournaments in the world. Only in the final did 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic step up to finally euthanise the tired Scot.

The poor quality of tennis from those beneath the dominant few is more than just speculation. Rafael Nadal has accumulated a massive 600 fewer points than at this point last year, yet he is ranked a spot higher in the 2016-only Race rankings at 6. Overall, the players ranked 5-8 in the Race have acquired a combined total of 11500 points, while the same ranked players captured 13965 at this point last year, even though Federer’s full schedule in 2015 meant he took a large chunk of the major points on offer at the big events.

Simply put, there have been very few outstanding performers in 2016 aside from Murray and Djokovic; though the solid improvement seen from Milos Raonic merits a mention. Still, even Raonic’s limitations have been stripped bare in his meetings with Murray this summer. Del Potro, after his glorious Olympics run, and Cilic complete the very short list of those currently in with a chance of capitalising on the weakness of the Big Four.

Thus, as the final Slam of the year arrives, the men's side is seeped in more uncertainty than has been seen in a long time. On the surface, uncertainty is a fresh look after years of unmoving dominance. But this uncertainty stems from doubt brought on by injuries and poor health rather than any shift from the players beneath. Regardless, in the everlasting contest between the Big Four and the rest of the world, even in their most vulnerable state it is difficult to see anything but another victory for one of the European titans. In Slams and exhibition events alike, it has become the way of life in tennis and it probably won't end in a hurry.