Giro d'Italia 2020 - Stelvio or bust as time runs out for Joao Almeida's rivals for pink

And so, to the Stelvio. The highest point of the 103rd edition of the Giro could now prove to be its most crucial after it emerged during Wednesday's turgid stalemate of a Stage 17 that the race will no longer enter France via the Colle dell'Agnello on the penultimate day.

As the riders rolled out of Bassano del Grappa, news was filtering through that would leave an even more sour taste in the mouth than the fortified local tipple: Saturday's Queen Stage to Sestiere was in jeopardy and may well be replaced by a very watered down version not fit to tie the laces of even the least regal of Jacks.

Throughout the opening weeks of the Giro there had been talk of the early winter snowfall in the Alps. As the race made its first ever crossing of the Forcella Valbona climb on Wednesday, some one-thousand metres less lofty than the Agnello, the piles of snow heaping up on the side of the road left little to the imagination as to how things could be, meteorologically speaking, higher in the Alps.

The Agnello would surely be covered in the kind of snow and ice that would leave Steven Kruijswijk feeling grateful he was no longer in the race. But, in the end, it was not the weather which did for the Agnello, but the same scourge that has tarnished the entire season – the virus responsible for Kruijswijk's very absence.

The mayor of Briançon, the French town which lies between the Col d'Agnel and the Col d'Izoard, confirmed that he would not allow the Giro to pass through his prefecture due to emergency Covid-19 measures. This put paid to the original plans for the Giro to enter France via the Agnello and return to Italy after ascents of the Izoard and Montgenevre, before the scheduled summit finish at Sestriere.

Years of planning has gone down the pan. The stage over the Agnello was not just the day Vincenzo Nibali was most looking forward to – for obvious reasons – but the one that had fans salivating for. Just like the cancellation of Paris-Roubaix on the same weekend, the loss of what would have been an iconic and decisive stage will be felt keenly by the Giro. Not least because the alternatives that filtered through as Stage 17 played out in a blur of madcap Movistar mayhem were decidedly underwhelming.

Initially, the rumour mill had the reworked Plan B for Stage 20 as replacing the original barnstorming 198km stage, with its three almighty peaks ahead of the final uphill slog, with 100km of nothing followed by a double ascent to Sestiere.

Thankfully, this was not the Plan C which eventually emerged as the front runner – a 178km ride from Alba that includes a single ascent to Sestiere via the eastern approach from Pinerolo followed by two western ascents from Cesana.

Making it a trio just about saves the day, but there can be no denying that the penultimate stage of the Giro just got that little bit less exciting. Axing the Agnello and Izoard certainly plays into the hands of Joao Almeida and his Deceuninck Quick-Step train, who have done well to keep a lid on all threats to the Portuguese man in pink so far.

In fact, the only real wobble experienced by the 22-year-old Grand Tour debutant came in Sunday's Stage 15 in the Dolomites, where Team Sunweb really threw down the hammer on the final climb to Piancavallo. As Tao Geoghegan Hart zipped clear of Sunweb duo Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley to take a fifth stage for Ineos Grenadiers (and move within a second of a podium spot), Almeida battled to limit his losses to just 37 seconds and retain his pink jersey.

It provided the 2020 Giro its first piece of real drama – and saw Almeida win over the hearts of many neutral fans who may have become just a touch bored of seeing the newcomer darting ahead here and there to add a couple of seconds to his lead.

That's just what Almeida did in Stage 16 after the second rest day, adding a small cushion to a lead which now stands at 17 seconds over Kelderman – and almost three minutes over Hindley and Geoghegan Hart.

Fans hoped to see Almeida tested on Wednesday but instead just witnessed another ceasefire as the day belonged to Ben O'Connor and the breakaway, which included Almeida's compatriot Ruben Guerreiro, who moved back into the blue jersey.

But by placing the tough climbs of Forcella Valbona and Monte Bondone early on, the Giro organisers effectively neutralised the race later on. Even Almeida looked bored on the final climb, the youngster reduced to goading his rivals to make a move. When Hindley and Kelderman duly obliged, Almeida had them in his pocket.

There's no denying that Almeida has lit up his debut Giro – and had he not been in pink since Mount Etna, we would surely have seen him atop the podium as a stage winner. As things stand, if he wins this Giro at the first attempt, it will be just as impressive, but far less compelling as Slovenia's Tadej Pogacar doing the same thing in his debut Tour.

If Almeida hasn't exactly set the Giro alive in the same way as Pogacar did on the Tour, with his trio of stage wins and relentless attacking, then it's fair to say he hasn't had to, such has been the lacklustre challenge set out by his rivals for pink.

Wait, wait, wait… if they wait any longer, this whole pandemic may be over by the time we see an attack. Thus far, the Portuguese race leader has proved his ability to stick with the best on the shorter climbs – so it will be music to Quick-Step's ears that Stage 20 has been so comprehensively bowdlerized.

That made the other announcement made during Stage 17 even more important: if the Agnello and Izoard were off limits, the Stelvio was not. Any fears that the race's Cima Coppi was going to be scrapped because of snowy conditions and impossibly cold temperatures were erased with Mauro Vegni's assertion that Thursday's Stage 18 would go ahead as planned.

All of a sudden, there is a glimmer of hope: we may yet have a race on our hands. With two early steep climbs followed by a slog up the valley and then the succession of switchbacks up the Stelvio, the futility of Almeida's huffing and puffing for two extra seconds each day may be laid bare.

That's providing his rivals do something – and do something early. We know that Almeida doesn't like the cold and doesn't go over the longer leg-sapping climbs as well as he does the shorter ramps. The Stelvio – almost 25km long at an average of 7.5% – will be the biggest test he has faced, perhaps the only real test.

Ineos and Sunweb will have to do something on the Stelvio to isolate Almeida, as the gradient ramps up near the summit and the temperature comes down to 4 degrees Celsius, rather than leave it to the last climb to the Cancano lakes, which is just the kind of ascent that suits Almeida to a tee – the kind of climb that would see him skip clear of his Quick-Step protective bubble to add a few more seconds to his lead.

With Stage 19 reopening the doors to the sprinters, Stage 20 now just a gran fondo showcasing Sestrieres, and the final Stage 21 time trial into Milan that's only 15.7km long, the 103rd edition of La Corsa Rosa will be won on the Stelvio – otherwise it will be won by Joao Almeida.