Blazin' Saddles: 5 scenarios for Milano-Sanremo – why Peter Sagan can avenge 2017 defeat

Milano-Sanremo. Milan-San Remo. La Classicissima. La Primavera. Call it what you want.

The first and longest Monument of the year is usually decided in its closing metres – although last year things got spicy on the Poggio when Michal Kwiatkowski and Julian Alaphilippe chased down a monster attack from Peter Sagan inside the final 10 kilometres.

World champion Sagan looked destined to take the win – but Poland's Kwiatkowski got the better of his old rival in a thrilling three-way sprint on the via Roma.

Just days ahead of their rematch, Sagan drew first blood this week by claiming he "wouldn't be happy" to have won the way "Kwiatko won last year". In a perfect riposte, the Team Sky rider, just hours after securing the overall Tirreno-Adriatico crown, said: "Sometimes you don't win the races by being strongest, but you need to be the smartest."

But the Sagan-Kwiatkowski rivalry is but one of the many sub-plots going into the race. So, without further faff let's take a look at the route.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's been the mantra of the Milan-Sanremo organisers over the years – save for the recent failed experiment with incorporating the additional climb of La Manie from 2008 to 2013.

The first major classic of the season is a slow-building 291km battle of attrition from the outskirts of Milan to the coastal town of Sanremo in northwest Italy – an arancini's throw from the border with France.

Traditionally, an early break forms and leads the race over the first test of the day, the Passo del Turchino, after which the race hooks a right on the outskirts of Genoa before heading up the Ligurian coast.

The Tre Capi – the three coastal hills of Mele, Cervo and Berta (who sound like Italy's answer to three of Snow White's seven dwarves) – mark the start of the business end of the race.

Then comes the first of the two decisive climbs, the Cipressa – otherwise known as the Demare Motor-pacing Circuit – which is 5.6km long at an average of 4.1%. No winning move has gone here since 1996 and yet the maximum 9% gradient can call time on many riders' chances of featuring in the finale.

This is followed by the (in)famous climb of the Poggio, which comes 9km from the finish. With a maximum gradient of only 8%, it's hardly the steepest of challenges – but coming after the best part of 300km in the legs, its effect can be devastating and far stronger than any crosswind of cobbled sector.

After seven hours in the saddle, the Poggio usually whittles down the pack to less than 40 riders. Once over the summit, the riders must negotiate a fast and technical descent that includes five hairpin bends ahead of a flat 2km ride to the famous finish on the via Roma.

Unless you're Fausto Coppi attacking on the Turchino in 1946 and riding the remaining 145km alone to the finish, solo wins never happen in Milan-Sanremo. In the last 20 years, there have been 12 fairly large sprints – and you have to stretch back to 1990, when Gianni Bugno attacked in crosswinds before the Cipressa, for a break from distance to thrive (and even then, he was stalked by Germany's Rolf Golz).

But on Saturday, this all changes. Sick of his annual token attacks on the Cipressa or Poggio being ridiculed on social media – and knowing that his Bahrain Merida team have Sonny Colbrelli in reserve for the sprint – Vincenzo Nibali channels his inner Bugno and Coppi, attacking from distance and perhaps taking advantage of some meteorological anomaly to add a second Monument to his name.

Of course, this won't happen.

Far more likely is a repeat of last year's finale when Kwiatkowski, Sagan and Alaphilippe came to the finish together after pulverising the peloton on the Poggio.

Both Sagan and Kwiatkowski are in excellent form and have been talking up their chances. But this time, let's throw in Alaphilippe's Quick-Step Floors team-mate Philippe Gilbert to make up the numbers.

The Belgian needs a win on the via Roma and in the Roubaix velodrome to complete his grand slam of Monuments – and he'll know that he won't be able to rely on his diminishing sprinting powers if he wants to make it four from five.

The problem is that Gilbert won't beat Sagan on the via Roma – and after last year's result, nor will Kwiatkowski.

Even more likely is this scenario – for surely Sagan is going to be stalked like a stag in Scotland as soon as the decisive climbs come. Granted, it's easier said than done following the biggest superstar of the sport – even when you know an attack will come. But a high pace set by the team-mates of the other pretenders of the crown may neutralise the world champion while blowing the pack apart.

And Sagan won't be too bothered by this. His form last week in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests his powers in the sprint have not dwindled – and in a reduced field, in such a prestigious race, and with so many kilometres in the tank, he will still be one of the favourites.

Expect the Bora-Hansgrohe rider to have too much for the likes of Greg van Avermaet (BMV), Magnus Cort (Astana), Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Merida), Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott) and the stuttering 2014 champion Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates).

In a nervous race like Milan-Sanremo when there's so much at stake, the race can be a battle of attrition and all attacks neutralised to the extent that 60-odd riders arrive at the via Roma together as one. That's what happened when Oscar Freire netted the first of his three wins in 2004 – during a period when it was quite normal for 40 riders to contest the final sprint.

If we get a repeat of that this year, then expect all the fast men – more or less – to be there.

It will mean that 2009 champion Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) has managed to stay on his bike and stay in touch; that the surprise 2016 winner Arnaud Demare (FDJ) has sticky-bidon'ed his way to the front; that Caleb Ewan (Mitchelton-Scott) has build on his promising debut last year; that the climbs did not knock Marcel Kittel (Katusha-Alpecin) of his perch in his own debut. Heck, even Heinrich Haussler (Bahrain Merida) may be there.

It will also mean that veteran Andre Greipel (Lotto Soudal) is finally in the mix for a top 10 at the sixth attempt; that Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates) wants to go one better after his previous third- and second-place finishes; and that Frenchman Christophe Laporte is eager to show how little Cofidis miss the absent Nacer Bouhanni.

It will mean that even without the absent ill or injured John Degenkolb, Giacomo Nizzolo and Fernando Gaviria, we're in for a thrilling finale. And in this scenario, it's hard to look past the in-form Italian sprinter Elia Viviani (Quick-Step Floors). Already with more wins than anyone else since his move from Team Sky, Viviani was ninth last year – and can go eight places better in 2018.

This is one that you can only really script – because it's so beyond the realms of what one can feasibly expect from an oft-staid race like Milan-Sanremo.

It's a scenario that has Team Sky play things on two planes by sending Gianni Moscon up the road; one in which Sunweb's Michael Matthews, knowing that he's short after an injury lay-off, has a dig on the Cipressa – to be joined by the likes of Nathan Haas (Katusha-Alpecin) and Fabio Felline (Trek-Segafredo).

Then Astana duo Alexey Lutsenko and Michael Valgren have a pop on the Poggio – perhaps with Nibali for old times' sake.

Basically, it's chaos. And in this melee behind, it’s a real mix of riders who do finally manage to reel in the leaders with a Sean Kelly-inspired kamikaze descent of the Poggio. On the one hand, you could then have riders like Danny van Poppel (LottoNL-Jumbo) or Sacha Modolo (UAE Team Emirates) winning a la Gerald Ciolek in 2013. Or even 2006 champion Filippo Pozzato rolling back the years.

But more likely, the spoils go to that man Sagan – who rides downhill as good as he does on the flat.

Peter Sagan

Michal Kwiatkowski, Elia Viviani, Julian Alaphilippe

Arnaud Demare, Greg van Avermaet, Caleb Ewan, Philippe Gilbert, Marcel Kittel, Alexander Kristoff

Mark Cavendish, Magnus Cort, Christophe Laporte, Andre Greipel, Matteo Trentin, Michael Matthews, Gianni Moscon, Alexey Lutsenko, Sonny Colbrelli, Nathan Haas, Danny van Poppel

Vincenzo Nibali, Alexis Vuillermoz, Heinrich Haussler, Jurgen Roelandts, Juan Jose Lobato, Sacha Modolo, Dan McLay, Ben Swift, Jakub Mareczko, Fabio Felline, Jasper Stuyven, Michael Valgren