Blazin' Saddles: The 25 riders who can win 2019 Milano-Sanremo

ByFelix Lowe

Updated 22/03/2019 at 12:00 GMT

It's that time of year again as 175 riders battle it out over 291km for the ultimate prize in the first and longest monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo. After the fireworks of the Cipressa and the Poggio, and the long schlep over the Passo del Turchino and the Tre Capi staccato, who stands a chance of sprinting for the win on the Via Roma? Our man Felix Lowe runs through all the favourites.

La Primavera. La Classicissima. The bloody long one with the seaside finale. Call it what you want. But this Saturday, one rider will be crowned winner of the 110th edition of Milano-Sanremo.

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With five previous winners on the startlist – Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Michal Kwiatkowski and defending champion Vincenzo Nibali – there's a good chance that someone will become the eighth rider in history to double up on the Via Roma.

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There are also six further riders who have previously made the Milano-Sanremo podium – Julian Alaphilippe, Jurgen Roelandts, Michael Matthews, Heinrich Haussler and, both twice, Peter Sagan and Philippe Gilbert – so we're not short of pretenders to the throne.

And with 11 different winners in the past 11 years, recent history also suggests we'll see someone new atop the podium on Saturday.

Often considered the only true Sprinters' Classic, the first of the season's five monuments does not always come down to a bunch kick: the winning move for the past two years has come on the infamous final climb of the Poggio six kilometres from the finish – with Nibali soloing to glory last year and Kwiatkowski pipping Sagan and Alaphilippe the year before.

But today's sprinters are hardy, multi-faceted souls, many of whom can hold their own on the climbs. As such, there's no way we should discount the likes of Caleb Ewan, who led the peloton home in Nibali's wake 12 months ago, Fernando Gaviria, Dylan Groenewegen, Sonny Colbrelli or the two in-form sprinters of moment, Elia Viviani and Sam Bennett.

Details: the route, the climbs, the weather

Starting in Milan, the 291km route spirits the peloton across the plains of the Po, past Fausto Coppi's home town of Tortona, and across the slow-building Passo del Turchino, with its steady average gradient of 4 per cent.

A break will no doubt go but it won't be decisive: after all, the first rider over the Turchino has gone on to win the race on only 14 occasions, the last time being that man Coppi way back in 1946.

After the summit, the route drops down towards the port of Genoa before the race hugs the Ligurian coast for the final 140km. With just over 50km remaining, the riders tackle the Tre Capi – the Capo Mele, Capo Cervo and the Capo Berta climbs, mere amuse-bouches ahead of the more decisive morsels of the finale.

The Cipressa, which peaks with 22km remaining, is 5.6km long and has an average gradient of 4.1 per cent. A technical descent follows before the final climb of the day, the Poggio di Sanremo (3.7km at 3.7 per cent but with a maximum gradient of 8 per cent).

It's on the Poggio where Sagan blew the race apart in 2017 and where Nibali used an early attack by Austria's Krists Neilands (Israel Cycling Academy) as a launchpad for his race-winning move last year.

Going over the top of the Poggio in pole position is no guarantee for victory: there follows a highly technical descent followed by the flat 3km dash to the line. Both finales since Demare's bunch gallop in 2016 were real nail-biters: can we expect more of the same this time round?

A lot is often dictated by the weather. Who can forget that memorably freezing edition of 2013 when a snowstorm forced the riders into buses on the Turchino Pass before the race resumed on the coast – only for outsider Gerald Ciolek to take the spoils?

Well, there'll be no snow this weekend: the sun should be shining on the Ligurian coast with the mercury pushing 17 degrees Celsius.

Six scenarios

Long-range attack or breakaway win: it won't happen and hasn't really happened since the days of Coppi or Eddy Merckx in '66.

Who in 2019? No one.

Move on the Cipressa: again, very unlikely – the last rider to win after making his move just before the Cipressa was Gianni Bugno in 1990.

Who in 2019? No one, although don't put it past Alaphilippe.

Poggio attack: Nibali managed it last year, Kwiatkowski the year before – it's not actually that rare, with Simon Gerrans also pipping Fabian Cancellara in 2012 after they broke clear on the climb. A variant of this is making a move on the descent, as we saw when Gerald Ciolek went clear with six riders in 2013 before beating Sagan in the sprint.

The most famous example of this was Sean Kelly in 1992, the Irishman catching Moreno Argentin on the downhill en route to his ninth and final monument.

Who in 2019? Nibali becoming the first rider since Erik Zabel in 2001 to win successive editions is unlikely. The likes of Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Alaphilippe, Bardet or, going down, Mohoric stand out.

Cavendish wins Milan-Sanremo

Reduced sprint: Cavendish beat Haussler in 2010 after the two went clear of the pack on the home straight – and it's not rare for the spoils to be fought between a handful of riders, as with Ciolek in 2013 or Paolo Bettini 10 years earlier.

Who in 2019? A strong but not top-tier sprinter such as Colbrelli or Cort.

Bunch sprint: It's what we saw three years ago with Demare, and the years before with Degenkolb and Kristoff. It's also how Oscar Freire won his three editions.

Who in 2019? Take your pick from Ewan, Viviani, Bennett or Gaviria.

Late attack: Very occasionally an opportunist throws the dice and comes up trumps – as Fabian Cancellara did in 2008 when he attacked in the final few kilometres and held the sprinters at bay.

Who in 2019? Niki Terpstra fits the bill.

Rider ratings: the 25 who could win

*****

Julian Alaphilippe (Deceunick-QuickStep)

It seems a bit frivolous to put the Frenchman on a pedestal like this, but he seems to be winning races for fun right now, and his team are by far the strongest. He's also one of the few who could win from both long range and a sprint. Third two years ago, first on Saturday?

Michal Kwiatkowski edges Peter Sagan and Julian Alaphilippe to win Milano-Sanremo in 2017

Image credit: Getty Images

****

Fernando Gaviria (UAE Team Emirates), Elia Viviani (Deceuninck-QuickStep), Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgrohe), Caleb Ewan (Lotto Soudal)

Colombia's Gaviria has been in the mix on both his previous appearances and should face stiff opposition from his former team-mate Viviani. The Italian champion offers QuickStep a Plan B (or a Plan A) depending on whether Alaphilippe's involved in a move on the Poggio, but it's not just Gaviria he'll need to watch.

Bora's Bennett has been on top form this season, and with team-mate Peter Sagan firing blanks, the Irishman could give his team a further selection headache ahead of the Giro with a win: a nice problem to have, mind. But don't discount the Aussie pocket-rocket Ewan, runner-up (but winner of the sprint) last year, and 10th in his first appearance. He's in form and has the right skill set to win a la Cavendish.

Watch brilliant Bennett out-sprint Demare to Stage 6 victory

***

Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe), Sonny Colbrelli (UAE Team Emirates), Dylan Groenewegen (Jumbo-Visma), Magnus Cort (Astana-Nursultan)

Twice runner-up and two further times in the top five, Sagan is always there or thereabouts in La Primavera. A lot depends on his health going into Saturday's race, the Slovenian sensation having suffered an illness during Tirreno-Adriatico.

Two riders in stellar form of late, Dutchman Groenewegen and Dane Cort will have high hopes for Saturday, the former aiming to become the first man since Mark Cavendish in 2009 to win on his maiden appearance on the Via Roma. Cort has finished 11th and eighth in his two appearances and has the form to give Astana their 20th win of the season.

As for Colbrelli, the Italian will happily ride under the radar with all eyes on Bahrain team-mate Nibali, but his record here is solid – three top 10s – and his form not to be baulked at.

**

Vincenzo Nibali and Matej Mohoric (both Bahrain-Merida), Greg Van Avermaet (CCC), Arnaud Demare (Groupama-FDJ), Philippe Gilbert (Deceuninck-QuickStep), Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott), John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo), Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky)

Surely lightning won't strike twice for Nibali – hence the defending champion's low two-star rating. Like Nibali, team-mate Mohoric can descent like a demon – a skill which always gives you a chance in such a race. A rider who'd have to win in the same vein is the 2017 winner Kwiatkowski.

Belgium's Van Avermaet is a Sanremo veteran but has never finished above fifth while former winners, the Frenchman Demare and Germany's Degenkolb, don't look like they have the legs to pull it off.

QuickStep's strength in depth is such that Belgians Gilbert (twice runner-up) and debutant Yves Lampaert could be called on in the right circumstances, while former rider Trentin has once cracked the top 10.

*

Nacer Bouhanni (Cofidis), Niccolo Bonifazio (Direct Energy), Sacha Modolo (EF Education First), Jurgen Roelandts and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Giacomo Nizzolo (Dimension Data), Alexander Kristoff (UAE Team Emirates), Tom Dumoulin (Team Sunweb)

Demoted to Gaviria's lead-out man, could the 2014 winner Kristoff put in a timely reminder of what he is capable? Italians Bonifazio, Modolo and Nizzolo could easily ghost into the top 10, while Frenchman Bouhanni – for all his constant woes – has never finished worse than eighth in three appearances (he's never finished higher than fourth, either).

With Michael Matthews perhaps laid low with concussion, Sunweb's hopes will be on Dumoulin's shoulders, but it would take a miracle of circumstances for the Dutchman to win: he doesn't have the kick to win in a sprint, so would have to do it a la Nibali. Supposing Matthews gets the go-ahead, swap him in for his towering team-mate.

And finally, Movistar have two cards to play in Roelandts and Valverde. The Belgian has twice finished in the top five here, while the Spanish world champion is, well, Valverde, so discount him and his advancing years at your peril.

Blazin' Saddles prediction

The heart says Sonny Colbrelli but the head says Elia Viviani in a mass bunch sprint, ahead of Caleb Ewan, Sam Bennett, Fernando Gaviria and one of the other Italians, perhaps Niccolo Bonifazio (just to be a bit random).

Watch the 110th edition of Milano-Sanremo LIVE on Eurosport and the Eurosport Player from 13:30 GMT on Saturday 23rd May, or follow live comments and analysis on Eurosport.com.

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