Blazin' Saddles: 7 Truths on the first phase of the Tour de France

A lot has – and in the case of some of those opening flat stages, hasn't – happened since the 198 enrolled riders of the 103rd edition of the Grande Boucle crossed the tidal causeway of Mont-Saint-Michel and got the greatest bicycle show in the world on the road. So let's take a few moments to ruminate over some of the highlights.

Those who believe that this race is over because of the familiar sight of Chris Froome already in yellow are much mistaken. Just 55 seconds split the top nine riders while the likes of Fabio Aru (+1:23), Richie Porte (+2:10) and Warren Barguil (+2:51) can all still have a say.

Sure, Froome showed a new dimension to his armoury with his eye-catching descent in stage eight – but anyone willing to take such risks for so little reward (23 seconds, to be precise) must have concerns over his usual means of stealing time on his rivals. After all, Froome has failed to shake them off so far going uphill – and Nairo Quintana always gets better in the Tour's third week.

Five from eight stages; the top two positions on GC; three of the four jerseys. It's fair to say that for a nation who collectively just voted to leave Europe, the Brits are enjoying their summer in France. Prior to this year's Tour, Germany had set the benchmark winning six, seven, and six stages in the last three editions years – largely thanks to their sprinters Marcel Kittel (2013, 2014) and Andre Greipel (2015) winning four stages apiece. This year, Greipel has been completely eclipsed by his former foe Mark Cavendish, while Kittel has struggled to get the better of a man against whom he had previously never lost.

Leading Peter Sagan by just seven points in the green jersey competition, Cavendish has vowed to ride all the way to Paris where he will have a realistic chance of dethroning the Slovakian world champion for the first time in five years since the tyro first burst on to the Tour scene. But so far it's the performance of Adam Yates which has proved the most eye-catching for Britain – the Orica-BikeExchange rider holding his own in the Pyrenees and trailing Froome by just 16 seconds. Yates was just one heart-in-mouth, frame-hugging descent away from wearing the yellow jersey. Then again, he was just one deflating arch away from not having four stitches in his chin, too.

He came into the Tour being touted by many as the man to end France's 31 years of hurt. But Thibaut Pinot entered the first rest day over 15 minutes down on the man to beat, Froome. The same old cracks – a lack of confidence and an inability to ride in the heat – have thwarted a rider whose improvement against the clock was meant to put him in better stead entering the Alpine business end of the race. If it's the odd years in which Pinot usually suffers, this year's implosion points the finger at the Pyrenees, with the race going against recent tradition of running in the opposite direction as the previous year.

All this seems to suggest that Pinot would be far better suited at riding in a Grand Tour which both skips the Pyrenees and takes place in far more clement weather. Hence the FDJ rider insisting that the 100th edition of the Giro d'Italia is to be his main focus next year. Being competitive in Italy will do his confidence far bigger favours than digging deep for a Tour top twenty. For now, however, the polka dot jersey will offer renewed hope. Scant consolation for a rider with ambitions not to be the new Thomas Voeckler or Anthony Charteau but an heir to Bernard Hinault.

When Dimension Data signed Mark Cavendish there were many people – including the author of this humble blog – who presumed the Manxman would upset the apple cart. With the African team having just enjoyed its best Tour with Steve Cummings winning on Nelson Mandela day and Serge Pauwels cracking the top 15, it was feared that the addition of Cavendish and his sprint entourage would be one step forward, two steps back. Far from it. By allowing Cavendish the freedom to pursue his own goals, Dimension Data have got the best out of the former world champion.

More importantly, not only has Cavendish delivered three stage wins – plus that elusive yellow jersey – he has done so without compromising the rest of the team. The outstanding Cummings already has his win, while the likes of Daniel Teklehaimanot, Natnael Berhane and Pauwels have all been free to roam. Shortly after Cavendish joined, Dimension Data were elevated to WorldTour status. His wins – and we could see two more, including one in Paris, plus perhaps even a green jersey – have taken the team to a far higher plane than anyone thought possible, and done marvels for the Qhubeka charity in the process.

One of the most enduring images of the race so far is the Colombian peering out from behind the bony glutes of his big rival. If Froome has a reputation for looking at his stem, then the same should be said about Quintana and Froome's backside – for he's spent the vast majority of the opening eight days banking on the man now in yellow not breaking wind. In fact, his only blip in the race occurred at the top of the Peyresourde when he slowed to pick up a water bottle, allowing Froome to attack on the descent. It was then that the Sky rider picked up the 23 seconds than now split him and Quintana on GC. But this will be music to Movistar's ears: this time last year their man was two minutes adrift.

Dan Martin, after he lit up the sodden climb to Arcalis with a succession of attacks in the rain, voiced his frustration about some of the GC riders, claiming: "I like to attack and fight for the win even if this means getting dropped – instead of sitting behind and fighting for second." It was an obvious jibe at Quintana, but wholly misplaced. You don't win Grand Tours with yo-yoing attacks. You do it by playing to your strengths – and Quintana's main strengths are the Alps and the third week of Grand Tours. Provided he's still in touching distance after the Ventoux-ITT double header later this week, we may even see the Colombian smile – perhaps even while riding in front, not behind, Froome.

You can only but admire the Spaniard's tenacity. Only Alberto Contador would complete a climb with a broken leg – as he did two years ago – and only Contador would attack his rivals when suffering from a fever, as he did on Sunday just moments before throwing in the towel. Even after his expected move to Trek-Segafredo next season, it's hard seeing the double winner become a real factor in the Tour's battle for yellow again.

Much like his compatriot Rafa Nadal on the tennis court, Contador's body had taken a hammering over the years. He's lost what made him so special; he no longer has the competitive edge over his rival, nor the explosive kick or air of invulnerability. He's prone to the kind of crash which ended his chances half way through the opening stage in Normandy. So while he'll still probably win the Vuelta this September, Trek would be far better placed entering him in the Giro next year than making him suffer once again in France next July.

Accepting that the yellow will be won by either Froome or Quintana entering Paris in a fortnight, given Contador's withdrawal and the underwhelming performance of 2014 champion Vincenzo Nibali, there's a good chance that, like Pinot and Jean-Christophe Peraud in 2014, or Alejandro Valverde in 2015, we'll have one unexpected face on the podium.

It could be Joaquim Rodriguez, on his final Tour de France (the Spanish veteran announced his forthcoming retirement on Monday). It could be American Tejay Van Garderen, despite the BMC rider suffering on the Sunday's final climb; Roman Bardet certainly has the attributes, but could stutter in the two time trials. That leaves Adam Yates, Dan Martin or Fabio Aru. Surely it's beyond Yates at this juncture, but there's never been a better chance for Martin to hit the big time – provided he cuts out the crazy attacks, that is...

Of course, there is one other rider who has all the attributes and who trails the race summit by just 44 seconds. No, not Bauke Mollema. Sergio Henao, who has been as exemplary as he's been explosive. The Colombian could be to Froome what Froome was to Bradley Wiggins in 2012. Let's hope his radio works.