Blazin' Saddles: Will Julian Alaphilippe or Thibaut Pinot finally win the Tour for France?

ByFelix Lowe

Published 22/07/2019 at 13:36 GMT

Whisper it quietly, but the French are closer than ever to win their first Tour de France in 34 years thanks to the dual exploits of Julian Alaphilippe and Thibaut Pinot. But with five stages remaining until Paris, can one of them go on to emulate Bernard Hinault in Paris – or do Team Ineos still hold the cards? Rest day analysis from Felix Lowe.

A few things are certain after a pulsating week two of the 2019 Tour de France.

First, this is the most captivating Tour in recent memory – certainly since 2011 when Cadel Evans left it until the penultimate day to wrest the yellow jersey from Andy Schleck's spindly shoulders; perhaps, even, since the famous Tour of Tours in 1989 when Greg LeMond pipped Laurent Fignon by eight seconds in Paris. (But let's not get carried away: this Tour isn't anywhere near finished yet.)

Secondly, any of the current top six can still win this race – although a revitalised Mikel Landa may still be eyeing the podium.

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Thirdly, for all his panache, the man currently in yellow may not be the rider to end France's long barren run without a victory. That's because…

Fourthly, Thibaut Pinot is in the form of his life, is climbing better than anyone, has a strong Groupama-FDJ team around him and an expert mountain lieutenant in David Gaudu; he will never have a better chance of bringing it home for France. And yet…

Fifthly, having two riders in the top four and, on paper, the team best equipped to cope with the Alps deep in the third week, the Chris Froome-less Ineos cannot be discounted, with Egan Bernal set to soar on the high stuff, and Geraint Thomas getting better each day and a mere Alaphilippe crack away from donning the maillot jaune.

La belle France

But let's give it up to the hosts – credit where credit is due – for making this race so memorable, regardless of what happens during the final week. In the years to come, we'll all be telling our grandchildren about the legendary 2019 Tour where so much was left to play for right to the very end.

By ensuring an 11th day in yellow on Tuesday, Julian Alaphilippe has gone one better than his predecessor Thomas Voeckler, who twice put in 10-day stints in the maillot jaune, most recently during that 2011 Tour when Schleck finally prised the jersey from his shoulders on Alpe d'Huez.

Thibaut Pinot rode a flawless opening nine days of the race only to see his world cave in last Monday, before the first rest day, when a cruel combination of crosswinds and a roundabout saw him lose 1'40" in the GC battle. Taking a leaf out of Marcel Proust's road book, it's lost time that Pinot has now regained after a solid ITT in Pau and back-to-back-breaking attacks in the Pyrenees.

Between them, these two musketeers have won all three of the host nation's stage wins so far this July, with Alaphilippe's victory in Epernay and the time trial at Pau preceding the pick of the bunch, Pinot's Tourmalet triumph. And how can we forget their attacking exploits on the road to Saint-Etienne when Alaphilippe took back the yellow jersey ahead of Bastille Day?

Highlights: Pinot, Alaphilippe seal French one-two as Thomas loses ground

And if Alaphilippe's star is on the wane following the Deceuninck-QuickStep man conceding 1'22" to his compatriot at Prat d'Albis on Sunday, then Pinot is very much on the ascendancy, gaining time on all his rivals over the weekend, most notably 1'41" over Thomas to cancel out those crosswind losses.

In David Gaudu, Pinot has a climber he can rely on who won't be sidelined by his own ambitions – something which cannot be said with regards to Thomas and Bernal, who both still have personal hopes of victory in Paris but whose peculiar dynamic was apparent on Sunday's final climb once they were split up.

While it's been 34 years since Hinault won France's last Tour, there have been Frenchman in the mix in recent years – even Pinot himself.

But when Jean-Christophe Peraud and Pinot were both on the podium in 2014, they were cut adrift from winner Vincenzo Nibali by eight minutes; two years later, Romain Bardet was runner-up but trailed Froome by four minutes; another year on, Bardet was third but 2'20" down after his inevitable crumble in the Marseille TT in Stage 20.

The complexion looks very different this year. Alaphilippe has shown that he can dig deep when isolated and climb with the best – but surely five more climbs above two thousand metres deep in the third week of a Grand Tour will spell out the end for a rider who has been winning races with swagger and a smile since January.

Pinot is a different preposition, though. Even before the Albi crosswinds, the 29-year-old seemed very much a different rider in his first Tour since 2017. If anything, last Monday's setback put the fire in his belly that resulted in his Pyrenean bonanza.

Take Alaphilippe out of the equation and Pinot is in third place and trails Thomas by just 15 seconds – a gap he could overturn merely in bonus seconds for winning a second stage in the Alps. It's not as if Pinot shies away from the big occasion: having won on Alpe d'Huez in 2015 and the Tourmalet last year, he's surely among the favourites to win at Valloire on Thursday, Val Thorens on Friday or Tignes on Saturday.

And yet, forecasts that the French heatwave is set to return for the final week of the race will set alarm bells ringing. One of the most noticeable things about Pinot's ride on Sunday was the rain; he loves soggy conditions. The soaring temperatures could put a damper on his rise and be a concern for a rider who traditionally wilts when the mercury goes above 30 degrees.

So, what will happen?

If any of the top six can still win this Tour, then we can probably take Alaphilippe out of the equation and – tempting fate – sixth place Emanuel Buchmann.

Wednesday's Stage 17 to Gap will be telling for it's the kind of profile that would usually attract Alaphilippe; perhaps he'll have one last throw of the die in a bid to add another stage scalp before shifting focus to try and stay in the top 10.

German youngster Buchmann, meanwhile, has ridden a flawless Tour going about his business quietly, methodically, clinically and very much – as the adage goes – à la Zubeldia. At least, that was until his acceleration on the Tourmalet caused Thomas to be dropped from the group of main favourites – and he was at it again on Sunday with some solid attacks in response to Pinot's surges.

The 26-year-old admits he's in stellar form, and yet he will have to do much on his own, with half the Bora-Hansgrohe team set up to support Peter Sagan. Austria's Patrick Konrad will help out, but Buchmann will find himself isolated in the Alps; a podium finish, however, is a realistic target.

That leaves Thomas, Steven Kruijswijk, Pinot and Bernal – four riders split by just 27 seconds ahead of the final week. Say that again while masking a grin... impossible.

Dutchman Kruijswijk has been superb this July and is on course for his highest Tour finish following last year's fifth place. In Laurens De Plus and George Bennett he has two high-mountain lieutenants who have staying power, and morale in the Jumbo-Visma camp is sky-high after their four stage wins.

Kruijswijk is a real threat and will be driven by the disappointment of 2016, when he lost the Giro with just days remaining.

But Ineos perhaps still pose the biggest danger to Pinot and a home win. While they are not riding in the same suffocating style which saw Thomas win last year off the back of four Tour victories for Froome, they still have both the Welshman and Bernal, the young Colombian in white, in prime positions.

Add to that the support from Wout Poels and Michal Kwiatkowski, who seems to be holding himself back for the Alps, and Ineos could yet wrest control of this race and assert their authority.

It's true, Thomas is not in the same form as last year: in the Pyrenees, he was limiting losses rather than riding clear of his rivals. But he's got a cool head, can race in the heat, knows what it's like to win the Tour, and seems to be getting stronger.

But his indecision on Sunday speaks volumes, Thomas admitting that Bernal being further up the road made it difficult for him tactically. It led to the defending champion holding off putting in his big attack until late on, for fear of dragging Alaphilippe back into contention; meanwhile, Bernal kept on looking over his shoulder for his co-leader, and probably missed a chance at putting in more time himself.

Ineos are still playing two cards and they clearly don't know whose hand is the better. Sir Dave Brailsford has even admitted that he doesn't care which of his riders wins the Tour, provided one does.

You sense that Bernal is a rider who gets stronger and stronger as the Tour gets on – and the stages to Tignes and Val Thorens are tailor-made for a pure climber of his calibre.

While the current headlines are asking whether or not France is in its best position to win a first Tour since 1984, perhaps, in a few days, we'll instead be asking whether or not Bernal, the youngest rider remaining in the race, can hold on to become Colombia's first ever Tour de France winner.

Second rest day predictions for Paris

Head: 1. Bernal, 2. Thomas, 3. Pinot, 4. Kruijswijk, 5. Buchmann

Heart: 1. Pinot, 2. Thomas, 3. Alaphilippe, 4. Kruijswijk, 5. Bernal

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