The World Cup Finals: expectations vs. results

Of course, there are different factors to consider when making predictions. On the one hand, there are always favourites and underdogs in any sport. At the same time, the challenge of anticipating the outcome of equestrian events is even more difficult when there are many competitors involved, and with two parts of the equation to take into account: the rider and the horse.

When it comes to the 2018 World Cup Finals in Paris, the final results in Show Jumping and Dressage were both predictable and a somewhat unexpected (keeping in mind too the idea of always ‘expecting the unexpected’).

With regard to the €275,000 Dressage competition, seeing the combinations of Isabell Werth and Weihegold OLD, Laura Graves and Verdades, Jessica von Bredow-Werndl and Unee BB, Patrik Kittel and Deja, and Dorothee Schneider and Sammy Davis Jr. finish 1st–5th respectively (among the 17 on Saturday’s final list) can hardly be described as a shock. Indeed, Werth and Weihegold were the champions in 2017 in Omaha, Nebraska, while the rider is the most decorated equestrian Olympian in history and has had a dominant presence in the sport over the years – especially in the absence of rivals like Great Britain’s Charlotte Dujardin and Valegro. For her part, American Laura Graves has long established herself as one of the world’s best in Dressage with her 16-year-old gelding (as reflected by their win in last Friday’s opening Grand Prix). Finally, the presence of another German in the top five is yet more evidence of that country’s traditional strength in the sport.

There was more movement in the €750,000 Jumping Final, as might be expected with 37 riders in the final standings and three classes over the course of the competition. American Beezie Madden, who captured her second title – this time on Breitling LS – would obviously have been a pretty safe bet as one of the favourites to win. And World No.6, third-place finisher Henrik Von Eckermann of Sweden, with his partner Toveks Mary Lou, was also one expected to challenge for the Cup. After all, he had finished first in the Western European World Cup qualifying. On the flipside, other top European riders, including the Netherlands’ Harrie Smolders and France’s Kevin Staut, who both had two horses at the event with over 1000 points accumulated over the past year (Zinius and Emerald, and Silver Deux de Virton*HDC and Reveur de Hurtebise HDC respectively) finished relatively lower than anticipated when the point totals were calculated: 17th and 21st.

Undoubtedly the biggest jump between expectation and result was by Madden’s compatriot, Devin Ryan, who finished second on the youngest horse at the competition, Eddie Blue. Heading into the Final, Ryan was the 68th-ranked rider in the world, although his partner, whom Ryan has called a ‘freak of nature’, has been performing consistently at increasingly big events leading up to Paris. In any case, in the end, the New Jersey resident was clearly grateful for his place on the podium beside the veteran Olympian.

“To be second behind Beezie, she’s a legend in our country and Beezie, McLain, any of them, it’s always a good place to be,” Ryan said. “Especially up-and-coming – I’m learning, this is my first championship. But it’s fantastic, I’m proud to be an American today, and proud to be alongside Beezie.”