Is Karim Benzema now Ballon d'Or favourite after Robert Lewandowski's Champions League exit?

Following Bayern Munich’s elimination from the Champions League, has Karim Benzema stepped up as the Ballon d’Or favourite?

The Real Madrid striker was at the heart of his side’s move to the semi-finals. After a hat-trick in the first leg at Stamford Bridge, he was on hand with a 96th minute goal to break Chelsea’s hearts yet again. Dominant in the first leg, decisive in the second. It sums up the experienced Frenchman’s best qualities. He is a consistent goalscorer and also a scorer of vital goals.

Only the very best can claim something similar: Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi did the same at their peak, Mohamed Salah contributed the same at his best, and Robert Lewandowski the only other player in comparable form.

Unfortunately for the Polish international, he won’t get the chance to score more in Europe after Bayern Munich were sent packing by Villarreal on Tuesday night. He has a preposterous 47 goals in 41 club games so far, and is on course to beat his season record of 55 a couple of years ago.

That outstrips Benzema, who has 38 in as many games. That is already his best for a campaign, and it demonstrates his continued improvement and importance to his side that his scoring rate is also his most efficient ever.

We should be able to assume that both Lewandowski and Benzema will end the season with a league medal, but there is a chance for the 34-year-old to overtake his slightly younger rival. Most odds services and betting companies have Lewandowski ahead, just about, with a couple of months left in the season but this should now be the Frenchman’s award to lose - but he is counting on his teammates.

Depending on who Real get drawn against along the way, the Spaniards are probably just as likely to win the Champions League as any other side left in the tournament. Lewandowski no longer has a say. If Benzema believes he deserves the award, then it is up to him to continue to show how vital he is to his team, to ensure not just that they reach the final, but that they win it too. In the past a World Cup or European Championship would have been a chance to stake a further claim for individual glory, but the delayed World Cup in November this year means that the award will be given before any of the players travel to the Middle East for their pre-tournament preparations.

As feted football thinker Michael Hincks noted yesterday, it seems from recent years that a Champions League win is associated with individual glory. Add to that the PR machine of Florentino Perez, and this might be the chance for Benzema to succeed where he failed at the recent The Best awards.

One obstacle that Benzema may fail to overcome is the sense of injustice that Lewandowski may nurture. In 2020 he perhaps deserved the award more than anyone else, but with the coronavirus pandemic at its most fearsome peak, the organisers decided to forgo the event for a year, returning in 2021 and giving recognition to Lionel Messi once again. With only a couple of years left for Lewandowski and a hint that he will be allowed to leave in the summer - no contract renewal has been offered by his current club - emotion may guide voters and sway them in his favour. Few could say he did not deserve it, but if Benzema is able to end the season responsible for not just one, but two major trophies, he will be similarly put out if he is denied glory.

Robert Lewandowski 5/2

Karim Benzeman 7/2

Mohamed Salah 5/1

Kylian Mbappe 12/1

Lionel Messi 14/1

Kevin de Bruyne 16/1

Erling Haaland 25/1

Cristiano Ronaldo 25/1