Ballon d’Or 2022 predictions: Why Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Diaz are among players not making our top 15
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Updated 22/09/2022 at 10:33 GMT
Our Ballon d’Or 2022 predictions continue for a second week, where we guess the names that will place from 22nd down to 16th in the men’s standings, and 16th to 13th in the women’s prize. We’re expecting two Euro 2022 winners to miss out on the women’s top 10, and explain why Luis Diaz and Bernardo Silva may miss out on the top 15 men’s list.
Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold during The FA Community Shield match between Manchester City against Liverpool at King Power Stadium, on 30th July , 2022 at Leicester, United Kingdom.
Image credit: Getty Images
We go again with our Ballon d’Or predictions.
Last week, we introduced the concept with a month to go until the men’s and women’s Ballon d’Or winners are crowned.
The aim was to predict each place in the 2022 lists, with Joao Cancelo and Christopher Nkunku among the names we expect to miss out on the top 20.
The countdown continues here, but check out last week’s piece for an explainer on why voting makes the lower places in the shortlists so difficult to choose.
So without further ado, here is our next batch in this guessing game for France Football’s coveted prize.
Men’s Ballon d’Or: Our 22-16 predictions
22. Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool)
2021-22 highlights – FA Cup and EFL Cup winner, PFA Team of the Year, Champions League Team of the Season
Does any player out there right now divide opinion like Alexander-Arnold? His England place, be it as a starter or within the squad, will be furiously debated heading towards the World Cup, but his exploits last season cannot be forgotten, and at just 23 the two cup triumphs saw him become the youngest player to win all six major trophies on offer to an English club - the Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, Club World Cup and Uefa Super Cup.
21. Dusan Vlahovic (Juventus)
2021-22 highlights – 29 goals, second in Serie A goalscoring rankings
The Serbian would be lucky to pick up more than just a smattering of points, and as we saw last year, only six were needed to finish 21st. Those are some fine margins, but at just 22 the striker whose run at Fiorentina earned him a big move to Juventus is only going to improve further. A scary prospect.
20. Rafael Leao (AC Milan)
2021-22 highlights – 14 goals, 12 assists, Serie A winner, Serie A MVP
Voted the MVP of Milan’s title triumph in Italy, Leao assisted all three goals in their final-day win over Sassuolo that helped them pip Inter to the trophy, and inevitably the even bigger European clubs appear to be circling.
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AC Milan's Portuguese forward Rafael Leao celebrates scoring his team's third goal during the Italian Serie A football match between AC Milan and Inter Milan at the San Siro stadium in Milan on September 3, 2022. (Photo by Isabella BONOTTO / AFP) (Photo b
Image credit: Getty Images
19. Darwin Nunez (Liverpool)
2021-22 highlights – 34 goals, Primeira Liga Top Scorer
The 23-year-old could easily pick up points from his native Uruguay, and that could well be the difference between a spot in the high 20s and high teens. His goalscoring return in Portugal, which prompted Liverpool to pay a club-record fee, may also see him pick up points elsewhere.
18. Sebastien Haller (Borussia Dortmund)
2021-22 highlights – 34 goals, Eredivisie winner and top scorer
Sebastien Haller is going through the battle of his life right now, undergoing chemotherapy for testicular cancer, and has been present in the stands at new side Borussia Dortmund this term. It will be his Eredivisie heroics, however, at Ajax last season that means the Ivory Coast international is likely to claim at least a few points.
17. Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)
2021-22 highlights – 13 goals, Premier League winner, PFA Team of the Year
Just when a move away from City looked on the cards last summer, Silva knuckled down and emerged as one of their most valuable players and an early player of the season candidate in the Premier League. Raheem Sterling was 15th with 10 points last season, there’s a chance Silva could pick up votes here and there to break the top 20 himself.
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Pep Guardiola, Manager embraces Bernardo Silva of Manchester City as he is substituted off during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Burnley at Etihad Stadium on October 16, 2021 in Manchester, England.
Image credit: Eurosport
16. Luis Diaz (Liverpool)
2021-22 highlights – 22 goals, 11 assists, EFL Cup and FA Cup winner
The sole Colombian in the list could easily pick up a handful of points from his voting compatriot alone, but whether that is enough to make the top 20 is a tough one. Given the names we’ve already picked, we fancy Diaz has a chance, while his impact towards the second half of last season has continued with standout performances for Liverpool this term – albeit as the best of a bad bunch on occasion.
Next week, we’ll look at the names we expect to miss out on the top 10. Here are the last 15 standing:
- Karim Benzema (Real Madrid)
- Casemiro (Real Madrid)
- Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid)
- Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City)
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
- Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona)
- Riyad Mahrez (Manchester City)
- Sadio Mane (Bayern Munich)
- Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Luka Modric (Real Madrid)
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
- Heung-min Son (Tottenham)
- Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
- Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid)
Women’s Ballon d’Or: Our 16-13 predictions
16. Christiane Endler (Lyon)
2021-22 highlights – Champions League and French Division winner
Swapping PSG for Lyon paid off for Endler, who was voted the French Division’s goalkeeper of the year and made the team of the year too, both domestically and for the Champions League. She was named The Best FIFA Goalkeeper in 2021, and is the only goalkeeper in this list.
15. Lucy Bronze (Barcelona)
2021-22 highlights – Euro 2022 winner
We’re putting Bronze lowest of the three England players to have won the Euros in this shortlist. By all accounts she is a world-class player, and was second in 2019 in the Ballon d’Or, but there are likely to be names picked above her. Nevertheless, she could yet place in the top 10 if voters really want to single out England’s win, and though she did not pick up any domestic trophies at Manchester City, that could change following her move to Barcelona, meaning she could place higher in 2023.
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Lucy Bronze | Euro 2022
Image credit: Getty Images
14. Asisat Oshoala (Barcelona)
2021-22 highlights – Primera Division winner and top scorer
A running theme of last week’s list was the fact certain players are going to have team-mates who outshine them in the voting. Oshoala, the African Women’s Football of the Year, arguably falls into this category too, although having ended as the joint top-scorer of the Spanish league with 20 goals, maybe 14th is a little harsh.
13. Millie Bright (Chelsea)
2021-22 highlights – WSL, FA Cup and Euro 2022 winner
Somehow missed out on the Euro 2022 team of the tournament but makes the top 20 here ahead of team-mate Leah Williamson. Bright was a goliath in defence for England over the summer, and though Beth Mead took the plaudits – and Keira Walsh was somehow overlooked in this shortlist – she could make some top fives given Chelsea’s double as well.
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