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Barcelona v Bayern Munich: Will Pep Guardiola blink first in game of Champions League chicken?

Zito Madu

Published 07/05/2015 at 20:35 GMT

The prodigal son returns - though not as wasteful but certainly as extravagant. Rather than returning to be employed again by Barcelona, Pep Guardiola is coming home to slay the ones that he holds dear in his heart. Football is cruel in that manner.

Eurosport

Image credit: Eurosport

He's also returning to be welcomed by an old friend and former team-mate in Luis Enrique, who is on the verge of repeating Guardiola's feats with the Catalan giants. There's also the return of Thiago Alcantara, who joined Guardiola at Bayern from Barcelona, and who could well battle against his younger brother Rafinha. So many storylines, so little time.
The last time that Bayern Munich met Barcelona in the Champions League, there was a complete public undressing of the tiki-taka masters. It was in 2013 at the Allianz Arena where the German juggernauts, led by Jupp Heynckes, out-ran, out-passed and completely out-played their Spanish counterparts to the tune of a 4-0 drubbing.
Barca's powers had been waning at that time, but yet this was still a team with the best player in the world in Lionel Messi and an array of talent as glittering as their trophy case. Bayern treated them as if they were children. The return leg at the Camp Nou was a mere 3-0 formality for Bayern. Messi even started on the bench as Barcelona were remarkably plunged into a crisis.
But much has changed since that time. Heynckes was replaced by Guardiola, and Tito Vilanova, the Barcelona coach at that time, died a year ago after succumbing to cancer. The teams in turn have taken on new identities as well.
Under Enrique, Barcelona have moved away from the systems of Guardiola and Vilanova which burdened Tata Martino so heavily that the Argentine seemed out of his depth the minute he tried to be different. Enrique received the same criticisms at the beginning as well. He had little idea what his best XI was; his team played slowly and at times, seemed out of ideas.
Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez no longer could function together and the blossoming Neymar-Messi partnership was interrupted by the inclusion of Luis Suarez. Factor in a loss to Real Madrid in El Clasico and it looked as if Enrique would vacate his post as quickly as his predecessor.
It's often said that intelligence is less about what you know and more about how to adapt. Lucho did so. Rather than letting the tactics dictate the players, he learned to play to his players' strengths. He sacrificed the slow passing and old Guardiola ideals for a more counter-attacking philosophy.
Ivan Rakitic has helped transform Barcelona's style this season
Once this change took place, the greatest front three in the world came to fruition, backed by the tenacious presence of Ivan Rakitic, who may not be as technical as Xavi but is blatantly more dynamic. Iniesta is also rediscovering himself, Sergio Busquets is as present as ever and when needed, Javier Mascherano can slot into the midfield for more physical encounters.
Barcelona are now the La Liga leaders and the fans are in support of the change in identity. Success will always win favour; Lucho has succeeded where Martino had failed.
Similarly, Guardiola had to learn the same lessons with Bayern. During his first year, he tried to mould the Germans into his Barcelona. In the league it was a successful project. Bayern famously won the title in his first year with seven rounds still left to play in the domestic competition.
In the Champions League, he faltered in the worst way possible. A year after Jupp's Bayern defeated Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final, Pep's version was trounced by the high-speed attack of Real Madrid's BBC trident. It was almost as embarrassing as the 7-0 defeat that Barca had suffered at the hands of the Germans.
Pep Guardiola almost suffered disaster against Porto, as Bayern's vulnerable belly was exposed
A year later and Bayern were almost once again eliminated by a counter-attacking team. Porto, to the disbelief of the world, ran out 3-1 winners in the quarter-final first leg. Questions of inadequacy and stubbornness swirled around Guardiola. Had he not learned anything at all? History would not repeat itself. In the second leg, Bayern eviscerated a bemused Porto team 6-1, scoring an incredible five in the first half alone. Pep had learned from his last failure.
The style that Bayern play is inherently suicidal. It's why the defeat against Porto, against Real and even the 0-4 loss against Wolfsburg are possible. Guardiola has nearly world class players in every position at his disposable - except in defence. So in order to counter this weakness, his team presses so viciously that their opponents rarely complete 200 passes per game. The problem with that is that, when teams manage to beat that press, Bayern become incredibly vulnerable.
Pep is so confident in his men and the style that they play that he essentially dares the other team to try to beat it. It's a 90 minute game of chicken.
"The game of chicken is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield."
Luis Enrique (far left) and Pep Guardiola (far right) are old friends
It's the scene in Fast and Furious 7 when Vin Diesel and Jason Statham race towards each other at high speeds, both unblinking and hell-bent on winning. Guardiola is Vin Diesel in this case, who lifts the front of his car up and smashes it through the window of his opponent’s car. He can play this game because he is better equipped and his resources are much more grandiose than any team that he faces.
So now these former team-mates, friends and admirers of each other will meet, with their teams being the antithesis of each other. Barcelona are no longer the pressing team as before but they now specialise in quick counterattacks with the most lethal front three in the world. Bayern on the other hand, strangle teams with quick passing and dizzying movement while also daring them to try to beat them on the counter. A dare that usually works in the Germans’ favour.
Besides the humanistic narratives that will overshadow the whole affair, this matchup is going to come down to which manager adapts the quickest and who blinks first.
Zito Madu - @Phaetonv2
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