Why Arsenal could be punished badly in last-16 for coming top as Real Madrid lie in wait
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Updated 12/12/2016 at 07:47 GMT
If Arsenal thought they would be rewarded for finally coming top of a Champions League group for the first time in five years, they may have pause for thought on Thursday morning.
Alex Iwobi and Mesut Ozil
Image credit: Eurosport
Arsene Wenger's side were delighted to beat FC Basel 4-1 as a draw for Paris Saint-Germain at home to Ludogorets meant they came top of Group A, in theory giving them a more favourable draw in the last 16.
But ahead of Monday's last-16 draw in Nyon, it has been revealed that far from getting an easy passage to the next round, they could in fact have one of the hardest draws possible.
A Spanish stats team have calculated that Arsenal's most likely opponents in the next round are none other than Real Madrid.
So Arsenal's most likely opponents after fighting so hard to come top of their group are a team who:
- Are the reigning European champions, winning two of the past three Champions Leagues
- On Wednesday night equalled a club record by going 34 games unbeaten in all competitions
- Have the top scorer in Champions League history in Cristiano Ronaldo, with his 95 goals in the competition
- Oh, and he's about to win his fourth Ballon d'Or too.
Even if Arsenal don't get Real Madrid, their next most likely opponents are a tricky Sevilla side and then Bayern Munich.
How are these figures worked out?
At first glance you would think that Arsenal have an equal chance of facing any of six teams who came second in their group: Madrid, Bayern, Sevilla, Bayer Leverkusen, Benfica and Porto. They cannot draw PSG as teams do not face opponents from the same group, and Leicester are ruled out because UEFA keeps apart teams from the same country at the last-16 stage.
This rule does alter the equation quite significantly: with Real Madrid unable to draw group winners Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, it shifts the probabilities in favour of a meeting with Arsenal as they only have five potential opponents.
Are Real Madrid quaking in their boots?
Not exactly. AS newspaper said on Thursday morning that Dortmund's comeback from 2-0 down at the Bernabeu was actually a fortunate turn of events for Madrid, putting them in the "good" pot.
After Arsenal, their next most likely opponents are a Leicester City side battling relegation, who just lost 5-0 to Porto. After that comes Monaco, Juventus and Napoli.
It isn't the most daunting of prospects considering Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City could have lain in wait had they held onto their lead last night.
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