Football news - Revealed: Who is set to qualify for Euro 2020 – and who is likely to miss out

PREDICTED FINALISTS

• Group winners - France, Belgium, Spain, England, Portugal, Germany, Croatia, Switzerland, Italy, Poland
• Group runners-up - Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Russia, Czech Republic, Wales, Sweden, Turkey
• Play-off - Belarus, Norway, Bulgaria, Iceland

GROUPS

• Group A: England, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo.
• Group B: Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania, Luxembourg.
• Group C: Netherlands, Germany, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Belarus.
• Group D: Switzerland, Denmark, Republic of Ireland, Georgia, Gibraltar.
• Group E: Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan.
• Group F: Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Islands, Malta.
• Group G: Poland, Austria, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia, Latvia.
• Group H: France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra.
• Group I: Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino.
• Group J: Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Finland, Greece, Armenia, Liechtenstein.

PLAY-OFF QUALIFIERS

• League A: Portugal, England, Switzerland, Netherlands.
• League B: Ukraine, Denmark, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden.
• League C: Finland, Norway, Scotland, Serbia.
• League D: Georgia, Belarus, Macedonia, Kosovo.

KEY POINTS

• World champions France, Belgium, Spain, England, the Netherlands, Portugal, Germany and Croatia all have over 80% chance of qualifying for Euro 2020 by finishing first or second in their qualifying groups.
• Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Poland, Serbia, Russia, Czech Republic, Wales, Sweden and Turkey are most likely to complete the 20 direct qualifiers for Euro 2020.
• The Euro 2020 play-off for path A is likely to include only one team which competed in UEFA Nations League A - Iceland.
• None of the Nations League A winners are expected to be in the play-offs as they are highly likely to qualify automatically for Euro 2020.
• The Euro 2020 play-off for path B is likely to include only one of UEFA Nations League B group winners - Ukraine - as the other three are all expected to qualify automatically for Euro 2020.
• Serbia are expected to qualify for Euro 2020 automatically by finishing first or second in their group and therefore their spot in the Euro 2020 play-offs for Path C should open up for someone else.
• The four UEFA Nations League D winners - Belarus, FYR Macedonia, Georgia and Kosovo - all have at least 78% chance of competing in the Path D play-offs for one of the final Euro 2020 places. The only way they can avoid the play-offs - which they have already qualified for - is to finish first or second in their qualifying groups.
• Only 19 of the 55 teams will be definitively eliminated from Euro 2020 during this qualification. Gracenote currently expects Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Greece, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, San Marino and Slovenia to neither qualify directly for the 2020 European Championship nor participate in the Euro 2020 play-offs.
• As each of the 10 rounds of matches is played in the qualification tournament for Euro 2020, Gracenote will update our simulations and send you the latest projections. You will find the schedule for updates towards the end of this document.