Will Lionel Messi win the Ballon d’Or after Argentina heroics?

Argentina travelled to Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa to face an Ecuador side needing three points to qualify for the World Cup. La Albiceleste’s record in Ecuador can be best described as ropey: they had only won on the road there three times, in 1947, 1960 and 2001.

Jorge Sampaoli’s men arrived in Quito in poor shape, sitting on the cusp of elimination having somehow contrived to draw against Paraguay last time out.

Argentina went a goal down inside the first minute but then Messi struck, hitting a hat-trick as the two-time World Cup winners grabbed an automatic qualifying spot.

A hat-trick against an Ecuador, ranked 35th in the world, may very well sound par for the course for a player of Messi’s calibre. However, context is everything here: Argentina had to win, the rest of the team appear to have contracted the yips, they were playing some 3,000-odd metres above sea level and, realistically, this will more than likely be Messi’s last World Cup at his peak.

Argentina needed him and Messi delivered.

And that could deliver Messi the Ballon d'Or. Messi was humble in the wake of his performance while his coach was a little more effusive.

"There was always the fear of coming here to play. Luckily, we could react and we managed to play well.

"It would have been crazy not to be in the World Cup. The group deserved to qualify."

"The nationality of the best player in the world is luckily Argentine.

"Football, the World Cup, could not be left (the same) without Messi. We had to play with that in mind. As a consequence of that pressure we are stronger now, this qualification will make us stronger to face the future.

"We had the possibility to help him to be in another World Cup. He is the best player in the history of football and I'm very excited to be in a group near him."

Messi’s intervention might have been perfectly timed. France Football have just announced the 30-man shortlist for the Ballon d’Or with voting not due to close until November. Cristiano Ronaldo had been the favourite to win the award after helping Real Madrid claim a league and Champions League double.

Had Argentina need to go through the play-off then it may have been a different matter entirely, as votes would have been cast ahead of his decisive intervention (assuming he made one). The rules on voting can be read here.

Late interventions have of course swung voting before. In 2013, Franck Ribéry had been the favourite for the award. However, Cristiano Ronaldo ended up winning it after voting was extended from November 15 to 29, on account of the fact FIFA had received “a response of less than 50% from eligible voters before the original deadline."

And on November 19, Ronaldo, the Ballon d’Or incumbent, hit a hat-trick that propelled his side to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil courtesy of a 3-2 win over Sweden on the night and a 4-2 win on aggregate.

Ronaldo’s late heroics were crucial to him winning the coveted award. Will Messi’s Ecuadorian excellence propel him to a sixth win? Or will Ronaldo hold on?*

*yes there are 30 men on the shortlist but, let’s be honest, this is a straight shootout between Messi and Ronaldo.