Only a top-four finish can keep Man Utd goalkeeper David De Gea from the clutches of Real Madrid

The paper reports that the player is now Real Madrid’s principal transfer target. They want him at the Bernabeu to replace the long-serving Iker Casillas. It is news that – while not surprising anybody – will concentrate minds at Old Trafford. Because the fact is, the last player Louis van Gaal can afford to lose right now is David De Gea.

For United the problem is a very different one from that faced by Liverpool over Raheem Sterling. At Anfield the board have all the best cards in their negotiations. Sterling may have gone public with his desire to move somewhere that he is likely to win trophies, but as yet no-one has suggested they would like to take him on. The queue of trophy-accumulating suitors is noticeably thin.

With De Gea, the world’s most substantial football club has made it more than clear it wants him. AS do not run stories like that without a steer from within the club. There is, obviously, a plan in place to recruit him. Madrid would like the keeper to join them this summer, but, as they did with Ronaldo, are prepared to wait a year, until 2016, if they know for certain he is coming then. And once Madrid come calling – especially for a Spanish player, even one schooled across town at Atletico – it is very hard to resist.

But if Madrid fancy De Gea, United need him. Desperately. So often this season, as Van Gaal’s team have spluttered and stuttered, he has been the difference between success and ignominy. A rough calculation – recalling astonishing saves against Stoke, West Ham and Burnley – is that his astonishing reflexes and athleticism has been entirely responsible for seven of United’s points. He has been the difference, in short, between them being in contention for the Champions League and being also-rans.

He has been United’s most important player this season. And as Madrid’s intense interest in him suggests, keepers like him don’t grow on trees.

Unlike Sterling, De Gea has kept quiet about the contract negotiations still taking place. But Madrid’s vigorous interest adds a new perspective to such discussions. Ultimately when Madrid want you, it doesn’t really matter what is placed on the table by your current employers. You go.

What will accelerate De Gea’s departure, clearly, is a failure to qualify for the Champions League next season. He won’t want to hang around scuffling about in the Europa League when he can join a club that have never lost their place at the high table. He is a player of clear ambition, who will not want to jeopardise his chances of playing in the European Championship finals for his country by not playing among the elite. If United finish fifth, he will be off quicker than an Andros Townsend tweet. Finish in the top four, however, and the club might be able to stall his departure.

There are many reasons why United need to be in the Champions League. Official club spokespeople might give complacent assurance that failure to qualify makes no difference, but the fact is another year out of the competition will be significant. Not least financially. Their myriad commercial partners, from official Malaysian potato crisp suppliers to Bulgarian telecoms partners, all have clauses in their contracts which reduce their commitment if the club is not involved in the competition. Adidas, for instance, who have just signed up for the most expensive deal in replica kit history to supply shirts from next season, will hand over only 75per cent of the promised cash if United aren’t in the Champions League for two seasons.

The most significant reason, however, isn’t monetary. It is keeping the best talent. Never mind attracting in decent players (would Kevin Strootman, Mats Hummels or Memphis Depay be as keen to join the club this summer if they were missing out on playing in the Champions League?) just holding on to what they have will become much harder.

Not that reading AS would be the first priority for Van Gaal, but Friday’s headline is a stark reminder of why he cannot afford to slip over the next eight games. Fortunately for his cause, the United manager appears latterly to have recognised that the most likely route to success is to deploy a Carrick-Mata-Herrera axis in midfield. The best method to achieve success is for his team to pass its way there, rather than hoof forlorn balls upfield.

Indeed, as he is more than aware, that is the way to ultimate success for the Dutchman: if his team can keep the ball they will be ever less dependent on their magnificent keeper to secure them points. This is the point: if his team can play like they did against Spurs and Liverpool over the next eight games, then he can be far more relaxed about Madrid’s militaristic strategy in Operacion De Gea.