World Cup 2018: England v Belgium guarantees goals – so expect Golden Boot drama

If you’re tempted to skip England’s game with Belgium… don’t.

Forget fears of another forgettable affair and embrace the no-stakes thrills of a World Cup play-off. With nothing to play for, except clichés of pride and ‘doing it for the fans’, the third-place game has carved out some unlikely classics down the years.

While the final is a nervy affair – just six goals have been scored in the last four – the play-off sees reckless abandon as the players enjoy one final blow-out before their summer officially begins. In that same period, dating back to 2002, 17 goals have been scored in the third meets fourth showdown, including the fastest in World Cup history by Turkey’s Hakan Sukur after just 10.89 seconds.

In fact, you have to travel back to Spain 1982 for the last time the final outscored the third place play-off. Eight times in a row, the final has been upstaged – on goals, anyway. And that's good news for two men in particular...

Realistically, the Golden Boot is now a two-way duel: Harry Kane v Romelu Lukaku.

There’s obviously a small chance Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann could profit from some peak-Lovren defending, but the goal-friendly nature of the play-off means the winner will almost certainly be English or Belgian.

Kane is a dead-rubber specialist, an unwelcome tag which was awarded after he fired seven goals in two end-of-season matches to top the Premier League scoring charts in 2017, while Lukaku is renowned as a flat-track bully. Given both teams will likely rotate, but start their main strikers, both No.9s will expect to score.

It’s easy to discount Kane’s record. Three penalties, a ridiculous deflection and a tap-in make up the bulk of his scoring in Russia, but it’s undeniable that his goals have more value than Lukaku’s.

The Belgian hasn’t struck a decisive goal, only finding the net against Tunisia and Panama after his team-mates had broken the deadlock. Kane may have only delivered one truly ‘world class’ moment in the entire tournament, but it was that sensationally guided header against Tunisia that sparked England’s momentous run to the semi-finals.

Then again, Lukaku’s overall contribution far outweighs Kane. He was outstanding in the defeat of Brazil, while his dummy against Japan will go down as one of the great non-assists. If he was allowed to take Belgium’s sole penalty over Eden Hazard, and scored it, he would be on five goals. Subtract Kane’s impossible-to-recreate back-heel against Panama and we’re all square.

But that’s not how it works. The Golden Boot goes to the player who scores the most goals, regardless of how. Abuse Kane all you want, but he has a brilliant knack for always finding the net. He can’t help it if opposition players want to wrestle him to the ground, affording him the chance to score from 12 yards; nor is it his fault that a serious contender hasn’t emerged in Russia to stop him walking off with another individual award.