World Cup 2018 Group G climax: Should England try and come second? Are Belgium preparing to lose?
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Updated 28/06/2018 at 17:15 GMT
Tom Adams digs into the big issue of the day: should England consider coming second in Group G to give themselves a better chance of winning the World Cup?
Gareth Southgate / Coupe du monde 2018
Image credit: Getty Images
It is a notion antithetical to the very essence of sport. An affront to closely-guarded English perceptions of fair play. But it is the question every England fan is asking on the morning of the World Cup clash with Belgium – would Gareth Southgate’s side be better off losing tonight?
For Southgate it seems there is no question to answer. Even if the benefits of coming second in Group G, accidentally or otherwise, are clear, he is adamant England can only go out and try and win the game. Over in the Belgium camp, though, Roberto Martinez has a more nuanced take on how to beat a potentially advantageous tactical retreat.
But before we get into the ins and outs of what might occur tonight in Kaliningrad, let’s get the scenario mapped out…
What needs to happen for England to come first or second in Group G
With Belgium and England locked together on points, the team which wins the game will obviously win the group. But what if it’s a draw in Kaliningrad?
Goal difference and goals scored are both level, and that won’t change if the match is drawn, so FIFA will next look at head-to-head records. Unsurprisingly, this would not produce a winner if Belgium and England draw.
The next tiebreaker is fair play – i.e. the amount of yellow and red cards accumulated by a team throughout the group stage. Currently, England have two yellow cards to Belgium's three, meaning they currently top Group G by the slenderest of margins. If England pick up a few cards and draw the game, Belgium could end the group on top.
If fair play fails to produce a winner, it all comes down to the old-fashioned method of drawing lots. FIFA officials would put both names in a bag and draw out a winner. Imagine the drama.
How the World Cup draw works out
If England win Group G: This would place England in the top half of the draw. They would face one of Colombia, Japan or Senegal in the last-16 and then either Mexico or Brazil in the quarter-finals. Get through that, and it would be Uruguay, Portugal, France or Argentina in the semi-finals.
If England come second in Group G: Again, it would be Colombia, Japan or Senegal up first, depending on results in today’s 3pm kick-offs. But the quarter-finals have a much more favourable look with Sweden or Switzerland waiting in store. Then a potential semi-final would see England take on Spain, Russia, Croatia or Denmark.
The last-16 scenario is the same both ways - although that will change come 5pm - and if England managed to get to a semi-final in either side of the draw they would be facing a very good team who had made their way into the last four as well - likely Spain or Croatia even in the 'easier' side of the draw. What we are talking about, then, is essentially avoiding Brazil in the quarters and instead having to play one of Sweden or Switzerland for a place in the semi-finals for the first time since 1990.
Can you tell us more about England’s chances in either scenario?
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Harry Kane celebrates
Image credit: Getty Images
Happily, the good people at Gracenote Sports have worked out how England’s World Cup hopes are altered by coming first or second in the group. By simulating the rest of the tournament one million times using their predictive model, they believe that England’s chances of reaching the semi-finals, and also the final, increase by nearly a half if they come second in the group.
| Stage reached | England group winners | England group runners up |
| Quarter-final | 64% | 61% |
| Semi-final | 24% | 35% |
| Final | 12% | 18% |
| Winners | 7% | 8% |
According to Gracenote:
The best case scenario of a runners-up spot in Group G combined with Japan winning Group H gives England 40% chance of reaching the World Cup semi-finals and 21% chance of a place in the final. The worst case scenario of England securing top spot in Group G and facing Colombia in the last 16 provides England with a 20% chance of a semi-final spot and 10% probability of reaching the final.
What Southgate says
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England's coach Gareth Southgate (R) and England's midfielder Eric Dier
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The England manager is refusing to even countenance the possibility that England might try to engineer a second-place finish in Group G.
We’ve not won a knockout game since 2006, why we are starting to plot which would be a better venue for our semi-final is beyond me, really… We want to win the game. That would mean we top the group and can move forward. I go back to the fact we’re trying to develop a winning mentality. I can’t imagine a situation where I talk to the players about anything else. It wouldn’t authentic for what we’ve been trying to build for the last two years.
What Martinez says
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Belgium's coach Roberto Martinez attends a press conference on the eve of the Russia 2018 World Cup Group G football match between England and Belgium
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It seems Belgium are taking a rather more considered view of events – with Martinez openly admitting that he doesn’t believe winning the match is essential.
We have qualified and that was the priority. Now we need to look at our individual players. We want to perform well but the priority is not to win. That is the reality, we have put ourselves in this situation, we wanted to qualify and we have done that.
The team news
Martinez is set to be true to his word and there are suggestions that Belgium will make up to 10 changes to their starting XI – with Eden Hazard said to be keen to start the game at least. Romelu Lukaku, with four goals to his name, has already been ruled out with fitness problem and Martinez certainly won’t risk any players on bookings – Kevin de Bruyne, Thomas Meunier and Jan Vertongen. Just look at their possible starting XI:
As for England, Southgate says he is keen to give minutes to players who could be useful later in the tournament and that may mean that Marcus Rashford starts in place of Raheem Sterling. Eric Dier will also come in for his first appearance of the World Cup and Gary Cahill could get a start in defence. Otherwise, it could be a familiar looking team as England seek to keep up their momentum, whomever awaits in the knockout phase...
Our View
We canvassed the views of our reporters, asking them which England team they would pick and whether they could think about trying for second spot. Read their views in our latest Roundtable.
What do you think? Should England really try and not finish top of the group? Let us know in the comments below...
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