Paul Parker: Zlatan-less Sweden pose major threat to England’s hopes

‘We’re going to make the semi-finals’.

No one said it, but everyone was thinking it ahead of our quarter-final with Cameroon at Italia 90. African football wasn’t on our radar at the time – and we nearly got our arses spanked because of it.

It’s something Gareth Southgate must guard against: complacency. I don’t want to seem like I’m trampling on the parade, but we can’t forget about Iceland two years ago. England can’t take being on the supposed easy side of the draw for granted.

They have to be very careful. Sweden are thriving since ditching their only superstar, Zlatan Ibrahimovic. No longer is he loitering upfront, dictating what the team does, showing frustration as soon as something upsets him, thinking he’s better than everyone else.

Janne Andersson has decided to go with the team over the individual. Workaholics over prima donnas. And this approach is typified by Marcus Berg, a striker who may not be that prolific on the international stage, but is the type to win players’ player of the year every season due to his commitment. Every team would like someone like him.

So before we get carried away by saying England have an easy passage, let’s look at it from our opponents’ perspective. Are they not seeing a golden opportunity to reach a final too? It’s the same with Croatia and Russia. Forget a walk in the park, this is a cake war – and everyone is gunning for the only slice. We all have the same dream, but only one team can fulfil it.

So how can England do that? Well, they have to create more opportunities. He may have scored six goals, but how many shots as Harry Kane actually had aside from penalties and headers? We haven’t created nearly enough for him. For all the possession we had against Colombia, particularly in the early stages, we didn’t produce anything in the final third. Only looking good going sideways is a problem.

Sweden are disciplined, unlike Panama and Colombia. They aren’t going to concede stupid penalties and lose their heads, meaning we can’t rely on cheap set-pieces to win. It’s time to see how good Southgate’s side are from open play.

England are at their best when they take the game to their opponents. But when we got 1-0 ahead against Colombia, we got slightly complacent, started playing negatively and invited the South Americans to come at us. It was the same against Cameroon in 1990 – we scored and thought the job was done.

Of course the players will be dreaming about a possible final and wondering, ‘what if we actually do this?’. It’s human nature. But it can all fall apart very quickly if you don’t stay focused and respect your opponents. Fortunately for England, their record against Sweden is average (eight wins, nine draws, seven defeats) so there should be no one underestimating them.

I would make two changes from Monday night. Dele Alli has been completely anonymous, whether it’s injury or the system I’m unsure, and should be replaced by Ruben Loftus-Cheek. The Palace man would get on the ball and try to go past someone. And as I’ve stated many times previously, Danny Rose should come in for Ashley Young on the left.

I absolutely loathe people saying 'It’s Coming Home' and I’m not believing in it yet. Get us to the final, Gareth, and I might just change my mind…