Great Britain are exceeding expectations in Tokyo, based on pre-Games predictions made by statisticians.
In the run up to the Games, Gracenote forecast the entire Olympics via their Virtual Medal Table and predicted Team GB to endure a significant drop-off in medals from Rio 2016, wherein 27 golds rocketed the Brits to second in the overall standings behind the United States.
A projected 14 golds in Tokyo saw Team GB fall to seventh in the predicted table and fifth in total medals overall with 52.
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Lower expectations in cycling, gymnastics and rowing were cited as factors in Team GB’s potential downturn, though Gracenote did add that forecasts were likely to be “more unpredictable than normal” due to the pandemic.
However, a string of stunning performances by British athletes have seen Team GB make their greatest start to a modern Games.
Sparked by ‘Magic Monday’, a haul of 13 medals by day four emphatically eclipsed the previous best tally of six.
While Team GB are still expected to fall short of Rio’s haul, their most successful since 1908, overachievements in multiple events thus far bodes well heading into rest of the Games.

Biggest overachievers: Bikers ride the odds

The greatest overachievement so far came on the bikes, where Brits picked up two golds and a silver despite not being forecast to make a podium.
Tom Pidcock won an incredible gold in the men’s cross-country mountain biking on Monday, riding flawlessly to become an Olympic champion at just 21-years-old.

'What a ride!' - Imperious Pidcock wins mountain bike gold for Team GB

His shock win prefaced an unprecedented day of triumph for Team GB at the Ariake Urban Sports Park, as Bethany Shriever pulled off a stunning last second gold in the women’s BMX race.
Winning by just a tenth of a second, the 22-year-old was roared to the finish line by team-mate Kye Whyte, who had secured a silver medal in the men’s event just prior to Shriever’s race.

‘Life changing!’ – Shriever and Whyte celebrate the enormity of their success in BMX

Had it not been for the bike track, the Tokyo Aquatics Centre would have been the capital city of Team GB’s newly formed against-the-odds nation.
Having only been predicted for bronze, Tom Daley and Matty Lee put in the performance of a lifetime to secure an incredible gold in the men’s synchronized 10 metre platform.
In the 200m freestyle, Duncan Scott’s silver would have proved Gracenote’s forecast correct, had a certain Tom Dean not gone and nipped ahead of his compatriot to take gold.
The pair celebrated a famous one-two by getting back in the pool and winning the men’s 4 x 200m freestyle relay alongside Matt Richards and James Guy, going one better than their second place prediction.

‘Jimmy’s gone!’ – Watch the moment emotional Guy bursts into tears on podium

In doing so, Dean became the first British male swimmer to win more than one gold at a Games since 1908.
There was more unexpected joy in the water in a thrilling men’s quadruple skulls final, as Harry Leask, Angus Groom, Tom Barras and Jack Beaumont rowed to a surprise silver despite not being tipped to make the podium.

Meeting expectation: Peaty matches the hype

If his rivals had hoped that the pressure of being the nailed-on favourite might crack Adam Peaty, they were left severely disappointed.
Peaty saw off an early challenges to triumph in the 100m breaststroke final to win Team GB’s first Tokyo gold, going back-to-back after his win at Rio 2016.

‘The greatest!’ - Peaty powers to 100m breaststroke gold

Elsewhere, there was a silver medal as predicted in the women’s triathlon, though not for Jessica Learmonth.
Georgia Taylor-Brown battled through a puncture to take silver in a gruelling race made even tougher by a fierce storm.
It will be no consolation to Bradly Sinden that his silver medal in the Dojang met his expected quota, as the British taekwondo star saw gold slip away in the dying seconds.

Missed out: Dojang despair

A flurry of heartbreaks in the Dojang will be reflected upon as missed opportunities in Tokyo.
Bianca Walkden similarly saw defeat snatched from the jaws of victory in her Taekwondo semi-final bout, preventing her from taking home at least a (predicted) silver medal.
A third gold medal looked on the cards for Jade Jones but a shock defeat in the last-16 set the tone for Team GB’s Dojang woes, while Mahama Cho was forecast a bronze but just fell-short.
Skeet shooter Amber Hill’s forced withdrawal due to her positive COVID-19 test struck a brutal blow to Team GB’s shooting hopes, with Hill having been predicted to take gold.

'Still raw emotions' - Sinden reveals feelings after settling for silver

Looking ahead: On track for gold

Projecting forward, the athletics track could prove fertile ground for Team GB’s medal hopes.
Gracenote have forecast six medals in the athletics events for the Brits, with the men’s 4x100m relay team tipped for gold.
Dina Asher-Smith carries Britain’s hopes for a podium into the women’s 200m, with Laura Muir joining her in a silver medal prediction for the 1500m.
The boxing ring could also be a prosperous route to medals, with five podium finishes predicted.
Welsh middle-weight fighter Lauren Price enters the ring for her bout with Panama’s Atheyna Bylon tomorrow with a gold medal shaped target on her back, though the remaining five boxing medals are all predicted to be bronze.
The pommel horse final on August 1 will see Max Whitlock seek to defend his Olympic title, having safely navigated through qualifying in third place.
Lastly, Liam Heath is tipped for glory in the K1 200m canoe sprint, the 36-year-old having won gold in the individual 200m kayal sprint event in Rio.
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